Happy Valley · 2019-12-18
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-18 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AMAZING STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K H Ting, won by 4-1/2, with FLYING SWORD second and NAMJONG SINGS third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | AMAZING STAR 1.08.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 1 | 1.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 2 | 12 | FLYING SWORD N Callan · Y S Tsui | N Callan | Y S Tsui | 4 | 219.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | NAMJONG SINGS H-/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 10 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | VERY RICH MAN H/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 3 | 58.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | TOP SCORE B/TT S De Sousa · K W Lui | S De Sousa | K W Lui | 6 | 16.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | PERFECT GLORY J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 5 | 9.3 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | MR PICASSO B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 119.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 3 | PLANET STAR B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 25.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SUPER WISE P-/H/TT K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 2 | 42.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | HINCHINLOVE TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 7 | 19.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT C Schofield · D E Ferraris | C Schofield | D E Ferraris | 11 | 72.0 | 11-1/2 |
| — | 0 | FAIRY TWINS T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | — | — | — |
| — | 11 | COMFORT LIFE G van Niekerk · F C Lor | G van Niekerk | F C Lor | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | AMAZING STAR | 38.9% | 2.57 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | PERFECT GLORY | 25.8% | 3.88 | 6 |
| 3 | 7 | TOP SCORE | 7.9% | 12.67 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | HINCHINLOVE | 6.9% | 14.52 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | NAMJONG SINGS | 6.1% | 16.28 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | PLANET STAR | 4.9% | 20.55 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | VERY RICH MAN | 2.7% | 37.39 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | MR PICASSO | 2.6% | 38.22 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | SUPER WISE | 2.4% | 41.59 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 1.4% | 71.56 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | FLYING SWORD | 0.4% | 229.80 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 13
PLACE
5 21
6 11.5
12 253.5
QUINELLA
6,12 1,234
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 24.5
5,12 1,568.5
6,12 399.5
TIERCE
6,12,5 8,878
TRIO
5,6,12 1,697
FIRST 4
5,6,8,12 9,078
QUARTET
6,12,5,8 107,308
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,10,12/5,12>6,11 231,417
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
10/6,11 81
10/12 2,552.5