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Happy Valley · 2020-04-08

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-08 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SHADOW BREAKER, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/4, with EVERYONE'S ELITE second and PARTY TOGETHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite EVERYONE'S ELITE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.49.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SHADOW BREAKER Closed strongly 1.49.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting 6 29.0 1-1/4
2 9 EVERYONE'S ELITE Closed strongly B J Moreira · K L Man 3 2.1 1-1/4
3 1 PARTY TOGETHER Closed strongly TT- M F Poon · L Ho 4 5.9 2-1/2
4 3 FLAME LILY TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 19.0 2-3/4
5 12 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly B- M L Yeung · C W Chang 9 18.0 3-1/2
6 8 DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly H M Chadwick · K W Lui 12 6.7 3-3/4
7 11 FANTASTIC BOY B K Teetan · W Y So 2 6.6 3-3/4
8 2 PLAY WISE Closed strongly B C Wong · C H Yip 7 17.0 4-3/4
9 10 GALAXY EMPEROR Led early CP/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 11 25.0 5
10 7 YOU HAVE MY WORD H N Wong · T P Yung 5 156.0 5-1/4
11 4 SALTO OLIMPICO B B Shinn · D J Hall 8 40.0 5-3/4
12 5 CENTENARY IBIS CP-/XB/B1 V Borges · D J Whyte 10 185.0 26-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHADOW BREAKER2. EVERYONE'S ELITE+1.25L3. PARTY TOGETHER+2.5L4. FLAME LILY+2.75L5. ENJOYABLE SUCCESS+3.5L6. DIONYSUS COLLIN+3.75L7. FANTASTIC BOY+3.75L8. PLAY WISE+4.75L9. GALAXY EMPEROR+5L10. YOU HAVE MY WORD+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S ELITE (50.7%) finished 2nd — the winner SHADOW BREAKER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 EVERYONE'S ELITE 50.7% 1.97 2
2 8 DIONYSUS COLLIN 9.8% 10.22 6
3 11 FANTASTIC BOY 8.9% 11.21 7
4 3 FLAME LILY 6.8% 14.78 4
5 1 PARTY TOGETHER 5.5% 18.16 3
6 6 SHADOW BREAKER 5.1% 19.64 1
7 10 GALAXY EMPEROR 4.3% 23.20 9
8 2 PLAY WISE 3.7% 26.84 8
9 12 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 3.3% 30.33 5
10 7 YOU HAVE MY WORD 0.7% 141.09 10
11 4 SALTO OLIMPICO 0.6% 161.02 11
12 5 CENTENARY IBIS 0.6% 174.12 12
EVERYONE'S ELITEDIONYSUS COLLINFANTASTIC BOYFLAME LILYPARTY TOGETHERSHADOW BREAKER — wonGALAXY EMPERORPLAY WISEENJOYABLE SUCCESSYOU HAVE MY WORDSALTO OLIMPICOCENTENARY IBIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 295.5

PLACE

1 18

6 66

9 11.5

QUINELLA

6,9 350

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 207

1,9 31.5

6,9 103

TIERCE

6,9,1 6,035

TRIO

1,6,9 432

FIRST 4

1,3,6,9 1,560

QUARTET

6,9,1,3 41,273

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 46.5