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Happy Valley · 2020-04-08

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SHADOW BREAKER Closed strongly 1.49.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting 6 29.0 1-1/4
2 0 EVERYONE'S ELITE Closed strongly B J Moreira · K L Man 3 2.1 1-1/4
3 0 PARTY TOGETHER Closed strongly TT- M F Poon · L Ho 4 5.9 2-1/2
4 0 FLAME LILY TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 19.0 2-3/4
5 0 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly B- M L Yeung · C W Chang 9 18.0 3-1/2
6 0 DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly H M Chadwick · K W Lui 12 6.7 3-3/4
7 0 FANTASTIC BOY B K Teetan · W Y So 2 6.6 3-3/4
8 0 PLAY WISE Closed strongly B C Wong · C H Yip 7 17.0 4-3/4
9 0 GALAXY EMPEROR Led early CP/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 11 25.0 5
10 0 YOU HAVE MY WORD H N Wong · T P Yung 5 156.0 5-1/4
11 0 SALTO OLIMPICO B B Shinn · D J Hall 8 40.0 5-3/4
12 0 CENTENARY IBIS CP-/XB/B1 V Borges · D J Whyte 10 185.0 26-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-08 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SHADOW BREAKER, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/4, with EVERYONE'S ELITE second and PARTY TOGETHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite EVERYONE'S ELITE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHADOW BREAKER—2. EVERYONE'S ELITE+1.25L3. PARTY TOGETHER+2.5L4. FLAME LILY+2.75L5. ENJOYABLE SUCCESS+3.5L6. DIONYSUS COLLIN+3.75L7. FANTASTIC BOY+3.75L8. PLAY WISE+4.75L9. GALAXY EMPEROR+5L10. YOU HAVE MY WORD+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S ELITE (50.7%) finished 2nd — the winner SHADOW BREAKER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 EVERYONE'S ELITE 50.7% 1.97 2
2 0 DIONYSUS COLLIN 9.8% 10.22 6
3 0 FANTASTIC BOY 8.9% 11.21 7
4 0 FLAME LILY 6.8% 14.78 4
5 0 PARTY TOGETHER 5.5% 18.16 3
6 0 SHADOW BREAKER 5.1% 19.64 1
7 0 GALAXY EMPEROR 4.3% 23.20 9
8 0 PLAY WISE 3.7% 26.84 8
9 0 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 3.3% 30.33 5
10 0 YOU HAVE MY WORD 0.7% 141.09 10
11 0 SALTO OLIMPICO 0.6% 161.02 11
12 0 CENTENARY IBIS 0.6% 174.12 12
EVERYONE'S ELITEDIONYSUS COLLINFANTASTIC BOYFLAME LILYPARTY TOGETHERSHADOW BREAKER — wonGALAXY EMPERORPLAY WISEENJOYABLE SUCCESSYOU HAVE MY WORDSALTO OLIMPICOCENTENARY IBIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 295.5

PLACE

1 18

6 66

9 11.5

QUINELLA

6,9 350

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 207

1,9 31.5

6,9 103

TIERCE

6,9,1 6,035

TRIO

1,6,9 432

FIRST 4

1,3,6,9 1,560

QUARTET

6,9,1,3 41,273

3 PICK 1

A3 46.5

A2 —

A1 —