Happy Valley · 2020-04-08
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-08 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SHADOW BREAKER, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/4, with EVERYONE'S ELITE second and PARTY TOGETHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite EVERYONE'S ELITE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SHADOW BREAKER Closed strongly 1.49.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 6 | 29.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | EVERYONE'S ELITE Closed strongly B J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 3 | 2.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | PARTY TOGETHER Closed strongly TT- M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 4 | 5.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | FLAME LILY TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 1 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly B- M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 9 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly H M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 12 | 6.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | FANTASTIC BOY B K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 2 | 6.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | PLAY WISE Closed strongly B C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 7 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | GALAXY EMPEROR Led early CP/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 11 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | YOU HAVE MY WORD H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 5 | 156.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | SALTO OLIMPICO B B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 8 | 40.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | CENTENARY IBIS CP-/XB/B1 V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 10 | 185.0 | 26-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | EVERYONE'S ELITE | 50.7% | 1.97 | 2 |
| 2 | 8 | DIONYSUS COLLIN | 9.8% | 10.22 | 6 |
| 3 | 11 | FANTASTIC BOY | 8.9% | 11.21 | 7 |
| 4 | 3 | FLAME LILY | 6.8% | 14.78 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | PARTY TOGETHER | 5.5% | 18.16 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | SHADOW BREAKER | 5.1% | 19.64 | 1 |
| 7 | 10 | GALAXY EMPEROR | 4.3% | 23.20 | 9 |
| 8 | 2 | PLAY WISE | 3.7% | 26.84 | 8 |
| 9 | 12 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS | 3.3% | 30.33 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | YOU HAVE MY WORD | 0.7% | 141.09 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | SALTO OLIMPICO | 0.6% | 161.02 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | CENTENARY IBIS | 0.6% | 174.12 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 295.5
PLACE
1 18
6 66
9 11.5
QUINELLA
6,9 350
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 207
1,9 31.5
6,9 103
TIERCE
6,9,1 6,035
TRIO
1,6,9 432
FIRST 4
1,3,6,9 1,560
QUARTET
6,9,1,3 41,273
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 46.5