Happy Valley · 2020-04-15
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-15 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. HUMBLE STEED, ridden by K Teetan and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with NITRO EXPRESS second and V CHEVALIERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite VIRTUS STAR finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | HUMBLE STEED Closed strongly 1.39.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 3 | 7.5 | SH |
| 2 | 3 | NITRO EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 9 | 14.0 | SH |
| 2 | 4 | V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/P C Schofield · L Ho | C Schofield | L Ho | 6 | 19.0 | SH |
| 4 | 1 | GALAXY RACER B J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 4.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | THE FULL BLOOM Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 10 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | ROCKAGE Closed strongly H-/B/XB/TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 11 | 31.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | VIRTUS STAR SR Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 12 | 3.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P C Y Ho · J Size | C Y Ho | J Size | 2 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | STARLOT Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | CHARITYDREAM Led early CP-/V2/TT C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 1 | 11.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | GLORIAM T H So · P F Yiu | T H So | P F Yiu | 5 | 11.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | BREAK RECORD CP/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 8 | 20.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | GALAXY RACER | 25.8% | 3.87 | 4 |
| 2 | 10 | VIRTUS STAR | 20.1% | 4.97 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | BREAK RECORD | 13.8% | 7.23 | 12 |
| 4 | 6 | HUMBLE STEED | 7.5% | 13.40 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE | 6.5% | 15.31 | 8 |
| 6 | 11 | CHARITYDREAM | 5.0% | 20.05 | 10 |
| 7 | 7 | THE FULL BLOOM | 4.3% | 23.34 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | NITRO EXPRESS | 4.1% | 24.59 | 2 |
| 9 | 5 | STARLOT | 3.8% | 26.17 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | ROCKAGE | 3.8% | 26.55 | 6 |
| 11 | 4 | V CHEVALIERS | 3.2% | 30.95 | 2 |
| 12 | 8 | GLORIAM | 2.1% | 48.02 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 75
PLACE
3 37.5
4 61.5
6 31.5
QUINELLA
3,6 320
4,6 396
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 484.5
3,6 173.5
4,6 264
TIERCE
6,3,4 7,892
6,4,3 7,738
TRIO
3,4,6 3,258
FIRST 4
1,3,4,6 2,685
QUARTET
6,3,4,1 36,951
6,4,3,1 34,339
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 37
A1 —