Happy Valley · 2020-04-15
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-15 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUNSHINE WARRIOR, ridden by C Schofield and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with MAGNIFICENT second and ENFOLDING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite ALPHA HEDGE finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/TT 1.40.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 3 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | MAGNIFICENT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 22.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | ENFOLDING Closed strongly V K C Leung · C Fownes | K C Leung | C Fownes | 5 | 48.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | BEST ALLIANCE Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 4 | 4.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT B J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 2 | 4.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 31.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | ALPHA HEDGE CP C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 3.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | REEL BIZZY Closed strongly B A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 10 | 20.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | JOLLY HONOUR B/TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 1 | 5.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | SUPER FAST CP-/XB1 K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 11 | 73.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | ALCARI B- N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 8 | 15.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | CHAMP PATROL Led early H N Wong · R Gibson | H N Wong | R Gibson | 7 | 396.0 | 11 |
| — | 0 | CLASSIC BEAUTY C Wong · J Moore | C Wong | J Moore | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 24.9% | 4.01 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | JOLLY HONOUR | 16.0% | 6.26 | 9 |
| 3 | 5 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR | 13.9% | 7.18 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | BEST ALLIANCE | 11.4% | 8.75 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | REEL BIZZY | 9.1% | 10.98 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | ALPHA HEDGE | 7.3% | 13.70 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | MAGNIFICENT | 6.8% | 14.77 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | ALCARI | 3.1% | 32.25 | 11 |
| 9 | 1 | FLYING QUEST | 3.0% | 33.08 | 6 |
| 10 | 12 | ENFOLDING | 2.5% | 40.75 | 3 |
| 11 | 2 | SUPER FAST | 1.6% | 63.86 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | CHAMP PATROL | 0.4% | 228.40 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 104
PLACE
4 60
5 29.5
12 128.5
QUINELLA
4,5 1,099.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 290
4,12 1,453.5
5,12 792.5
TIERCE
5,4,12 60,724
TRIO
4,5,12 13,550
FIRST 4
4,5,11,12 12,611
QUARTET
5,4,12,11 387,205
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,7/4,5,12 627,375
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 20.5
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
7/4 169.5
7/5 760
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,6,12/2,3,7/Any Combination 587