跑馬地 · 2020-04-15
第 7場
2020-04-15跑馬地第7場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Schofield策騎、A S Cruz訓練的SUNSHINE WARRIOR勝出，贏出3/4。MAGNIFICENT獲得亞軍；ENFOLDING獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.6倍大熱門ALPHA HEDGE跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR 後段發力 CP/TT 1.40.01 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 3 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | MAGNIFICENT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 22.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | ENFOLDING 後段發力 V K C Leung · C Fownes | K C Leung | C Fownes | 5 | 48.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | BEST ALLIANCE 後段發力 XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 4 | 4.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT B J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 2 | 4.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | FLYING QUEST 後段發力 B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 31.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | ALPHA HEDGE CP C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 3.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | REEL BIZZY 後段發力 B A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 10 | 20.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | JOLLY HONOUR B/TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 1 | 5.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | SUPER FAST CP-/XB1 K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 11 | 73.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | ALCARI B- N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 8 | 15.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | CHAMP PATROL 早段領放 H N Wong · R Gibson | H N Wong | R Gibson | 7 | 396.0 | 11 |
| — | 0 | CLASSIC BEAUTY C Wong · J Moore | C Wong | J Moore | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 24.9% | 4.01 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | JOLLY HONOUR | 16.0% | 6.26 | 9 |
| 3 | 5 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR | 13.9% | 7.18 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | BEST ALLIANCE | 11.4% | 8.75 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | REEL BIZZY | 9.1% | 10.98 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | ALPHA HEDGE | 7.3% | 13.70 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | MAGNIFICENT | 6.8% | 14.77 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | ALCARI | 3.1% | 32.25 | 11 |
| 9 | 1 | FLYING QUEST | 3.0% | 33.08 | 6 |
| 10 | 12 | ENFOLDING | 2.5% | 40.75 | 3 |
| 11 | 2 | SUPER FAST | 1.6% | 63.86 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | CHAMP PATROL | 0.4% | 228.40 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 104
PLACE
4 60
5 29.5
12 128.5
QUINELLA
4,5 1,099.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 290
4,12 1,453.5
5,12 792.5
TIERCE
5,4,12 60,724
TRIO
4,5,12 13,550
FIRST 4
4,5,11,12 12,611
QUARTET
5,4,12,11 387,205
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,7/4,5,12 627,375
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 20.5
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
7/4 169.5
7/5 760
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,6,12/2,3,7/Any Combination 587