跑馬地 · 2020-04-15
第 9場
2020-04-15跑馬地第9場，Class 2，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C Fownes訓練的DANCES WITH DRAGON勝出，贏出HD。ENRICHMENT獲得亞軍；RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.1倍大熱門ENRICHMENT跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DANCES WITH DRAGON 後段發力 V/TT 1.48.44 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 12 | 4.4 | HD |
| 2 | 9 | ENRICHMENT 後段發力 B J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 4.1 | HD |
| 3 | 11 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 後段發力 XB M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 2 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | INSAYSHABLE 後段發力 V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 8 | 39.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | HARMONY HERO B/H/TT C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 9 | 23.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | AMAZING BEATS B1 K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | PRIVATE SECRETARY H/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 1 | 8.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | RELIABLE TEAM 早段領放 C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 4 | 5.5 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | HELENE CHARISMA 後段發力 B/TT B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 10 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | HIGH REV B/XB N Callan · D J Hall | N Callan | D J Hall | 7 | 9.5 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | EASY GO EASY WIN P-/XB/B2 H N Wong · D J Whyte | H N Wong | D J Whyte | 5 | 32.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | TIANCHI MONSTER M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 6 | 79.0 | 9-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | ENRICHMENT | 14.9% | 6.70 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | RELIABLE TEAM | 10.7% | 9.31 | 8 |
| 4 | 4 | DANCES WITH DRAGON | 10.1% | 9.90 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | HIGH REV | 7.5% | 13.38 | 10 |
| 6 | 7 | AMAZING BEATS | 6.8% | 14.64 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | HARMONY HERO | 6.3% | 15.84 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | HELENE CHARISMA | 4.1% | 24.67 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | EASY GO EASY WIN | 3.7% | 27.37 | 11 |
| 10 | 3 | PRIVATE SECRETARY | 3.0% | 33.67 | 7 |
| 11 | 1 | INSAYSHABLE | 2.1% | 48.00 | 4 |
| 12 | 12 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 1.2% | 81.08 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 44.5
PLACE
4 17.5
9 16.5
11 38
QUINELLA
4,9 96.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 41.5
4,11 110.5
9,11 117
TIERCE
4,9,11 2,040
TRIO
4,9,11 452
FIRST 4
1,4,9,11 4,988
QUARTET
4,9,11,1 71,678
3 PICK 1
A1 21.5
A2 —
A3 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,7,8/4,9,11 19,629
8TH DOUBLE
7/4 336.5
7/9 68.5
SIX UP
3,11/3,6/2,7/4,5/1,7/4,9 11,262
11/6/7/5/7/4 10,450,739
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
5/7/4 3,074
5/7/9 696