Happy Valley · 2020-04-15
Race 9
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | DANCES WITH DRAGON Closed strongly V/TT 1.48.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 12 | 4.4 | HD |
| 2 | 0 | ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 4.1 | HD |
| 3 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 2 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | INSAYSHABLE Closed strongly V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 8 | 39.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | HARMONY HERO B/H/TT C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 9 | 23.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | AMAZING BEATS B1 K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | PRIVATE SECRETARY H/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 1 | 8.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | RELIABLE TEAM Led early C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 4 | 5.5 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | HELENE CHARISMA Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 10 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | HIGH REV B/XB N Callan · D J Hall | N Callan | D J Hall | 7 | 9.5 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | EASY GO EASY WIN P-/XB/B2 H N Wong · D J Whyte | H N Wong | D J Whyte | 5 | 32.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 6 | 79.0 | 9-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-15 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. DANCES WITH DRAGON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with ENRICHMENT second and RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite ENRICHMENT finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | ENRICHMENT | 14.9% | 6.70 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | RELIABLE TEAM | 10.7% | 9.31 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | DANCES WITH DRAGON | 10.1% | 9.90 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | HIGH REV | 7.5% | 13.38 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | AMAZING BEATS | 6.8% | 14.64 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | HARMONY HERO | 6.3% | 15.84 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | HELENE CHARISMA | 4.1% | 24.67 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | EASY GO EASY WIN | 3.7% | 27.37 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | PRIVATE SECRETARY | 3.0% | 33.67 | 7 |
| 11 | 0 | INSAYSHABLE | 2.1% | 48.00 | 4 |
| 12 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 1.2% | 81.08 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 44.5
PLACE
4 17.5
9 16.5
11 38
QUINELLA
4,9 96.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 41.5
4,11 110.5
9,11 117
TIERCE
4,9,11 2,040
TRIO
4,9,11 452
FIRST 4
1,4,9,11 4,988
QUARTET
4,9,11,1 71,678
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 21.5
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,7,8/4,9,11 19,629
8TH DOUBLE
7/4 336.5
7/9 68.5
SIX UP
3,11/3,6/2,7/4,5/1,7/4,9 11,262
11/6/7/5/7/4 10,450,739
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
5/7/4 3,074
5/7/9 696