Happy Valley · 2020-05-13
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-05-13 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SMART LEADER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with BIG FORTUNE second and HIGHLAND FORTUNE third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SMART LEADER B/TT 1.09.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 2 | 3.2 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 10 | BIG FORTUNE B/XB T H So · D J Whyte | T H So | D J Whyte | 10 | 14.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | BEAUTY AMIGO B A Hamelin · J Moore | A Hamelin | J Moore | 11 | 7.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | E STAR H K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | JUMBO HAPPINESS B N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 9 | 25.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | STAR LUCK K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 1 | 5.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT H M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 5 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | NAMJONG SINGS B C Schofield · C S Shum | C Schofield | C S Shum | 3 | 3.9 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | SEVENTH SEA SR M L Yeung · D E Ferraris | M L Yeung | D E Ferraris | 4 | 41.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | STAY CHILL H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 8 | 199.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | NAMJONG SINGS | 27.8% | 3.60 | 9 |
| 2 | 3 | SMART LEADER | 22.1% | 4.53 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | STAR LUCK | 10.1% | 9.94 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE | 8.6% | 11.57 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 7.1% | 14.07 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | JUMBO HAPPINESS | 6.1% | 16.33 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | E STAR | 5.4% | 18.54 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | BIG FORTUNE | 4.3% | 23.42 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT | 3.8% | 26.02 | 8 |
| 10 | 7 | SEVENTH SEA | 3.6% | 28.04 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | STAY CHILL | 1.1% | 89.96 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 32
PLACE
3 14.5
4 45
10 42
QUINELLA
3,10 338
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 84
3,10 99
4,10 385.5
TIERCE
3,10,4 3,535
TRIO
3,4,10 1,012
FIRST 4
1,3,4,10 1,520
QUARTET
3,10,4,1 22,814
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 19.5
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
9/3 222
9/10 149.5