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Happy Valley · 2020-05-13

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-05-13 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY HAPPY, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Moore, won by N, with BLASTOISE second and GOLDEN SPECTRUM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite WORLD FAMOUS finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.49.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 BEAUTY HAPPY Closed strongly B 1.49.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Moore 7 29.0 N
2 8 BLASTOISE Closed strongly SR A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 3 8.2 N
3 3 GOLDEN SPECTRUM Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 4 23.0 1/2
4 2 GOOD OMEN V-/SR2 Z Purton · D J Whyte 8 5.5 1/2
5 1 WORLD FAMOUS Led early B/XB C Y Ho · P F Yiu 2 3.7 1
6 10 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B M Chadwick · K L Man 1 9.8 2
7 7 ABOVE B J Moreira · J Moore 9 4.0 2-1/4
8 4 ACCLAIMED LIGHT B N Callan · P O'Sullivan 6 13.0 3-1/2
9 5 VINCY XB/TT B Shinn · D J Whyte 5 18.0 3-1/2
10 11 DYNAMIC EAGLE B/H/XB/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 10 42.0 5-1/4
11 9 DIVINE UNICORN Closed strongly TT M F Poon · W Y So 12 81.0 5-3/4
12 6 STIMULATION B/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 11 20.0 11-1/2
0 CINQUANTE CINQ Z Purton · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY HAPPY2. BLASTOISE+0.05L3. GOLDEN SPECTRUM+0.5L4. GOOD OMEN+0.5L5. WORLD FAMOUS+1L6. RED ELYSEES+2L7. ABOVE+2.25L8. ACCLAIMED LIGHT+3.5L9. VINCY+3.5L10. DYNAMIC EAGLE+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BLASTOISE (21.2%) finished 2nd — the winner BEAUTY HAPPY was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 BLASTOISE 21.2% 4.71 2
2 7 ABOVE 21.0% 4.76 7
3 1 WORLD FAMOUS 9.2% 10.84 5
4 4 ACCLAIMED LIGHT 7.7% 12.95 8
5 11 DYNAMIC EAGLE 7.1% 14.18 10
6 6 STIMULATION 6.8% 14.65 12
7 2 GOOD OMEN 6.7% 15.00 4
8 10 RED ELYSEES 4.8% 20.67 6
9 9 DIVINE UNICORN 4.8% 20.92 11
10 3 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 4.4% 22.49 3
11 5 VINCY 3.8% 26.08 9
12 12 BEAUTY HAPPY 2.4% 42.24 1
BLASTOISEABOVEWORLD FAMOUSACCLAIMED LIGHTDYNAMIC EAGLESTIMULATIONGOOD OMENRED ELYSEESDIVINE UNICORNGOLDEN SPECTRUMVINCYBEAUTY HAPPY — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 296.5

PLACE

3 63

8 24

12 85.5

QUINELLA

8,12 1,633

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 231

3,12 947.5

8,12 425

TIERCE

12,8,3 68,721

TRIO

3,8,12 7,369

FIRST 4

2,3,8,12 11,724

QUARTET

12,8,3,2 455,092

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 29

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

1/8 39

1/12 1,119.5