Happy Valley · 2020-05-13
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-05-13 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SURREALISM, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 1/2, with BEST ALLIANCE second and TANGMERE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite TANGMERE finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SURREALISM Closed strongly B 1.40.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 7 | 5.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | BEST ALLIANCE Closed strongly XB K H Chan · D J Whyte | K H Chan | D J Whyte | 12 | 5.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | TANGMERE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 1 | 3.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | THUNDER STOMP Led early B C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 18.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 6 | 6.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | CHAMP PATROL T H So · R Gibson | T H So | R Gibson | 5 | 164.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | HAPPY WARRIOR CP V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 2 | 8.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | SMART COUSIN Closed strongly M L Yeung · C H Yip | M L Yeung | C H Yip | 11 | 343.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | TOP SCORE B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 8 | 34.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | DUCKETT'S GROVE P C Y Ho · J Size | C Y Ho | J Size | 4 | 109.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 10 | SUPER FAST XB C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 9 | 35.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | COT CAMPBELL B J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 10 | 5.7 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | TANGMERE | 26.3% | 3.81 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | BEST ALLIANCE | 16.6% | 6.01 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 15.1% | 6.64 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS | 14.8% | 6.74 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | COT CAMPBELL | 11.8% | 8.48 | 12 |
| 6 | 5 | SURREALISM | 6.0% | 16.77 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | TOP SCORE | 3.7% | 26.68 | 9 |
| 8 | 10 | SUPER FAST | 2.1% | 47.68 | 11 |
| 9 | 11 | THUNDER STOMP | 1.9% | 53.76 | 4 |
| 10 | 1 | DUCKETT'S GROVE | 0.8% | 123.26 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | CHAMP PATROL | 0.5% | 201.90 | 6 |
| 12 | 8 | SMART COUSIN | 0.4% | 235.78 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 56.5
PLACE
5 18
6 14.5
7 21.5
QUINELLA
5,7 170.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 46
5,7 55.5
6,7 39.5
TIERCE
5,7,6 1,740
TRIO
5,6,7 201
FIRST 4
5,6,7,11 731
QUARTET
5,7,6,11 15,909
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 21.5
A1 —
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,8,12/5,6,7 241,340
8TH DOUBLE
12/5 2,488
12/7 466.5
SIX UP
1,3,6/6,9/3,10/1,7/8,12/5,7 5,470
3,6/9/3/1/12/5 1,431,643
2 [A Hamelin] —
TREBLE
1/12/5 17,082
1/12/7 1,651