Happy Valley · 2020-10-21
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT 1.39.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 9 | 5.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C Fownes | K C Leung | C Fownes | 11 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | UNIVERSAL GO GO B M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 6 | 9.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 7.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 2 | 4.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | MELBOURNE HALL H/XB Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 7 | 5.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | SHADOW BREAKER TT A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 8 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 4 | 9.7 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 10 | 44.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | KIRAM B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 3 | 22.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 0 | BLOOMING SPIRIT B/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 5 | 38.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | TIGER GLARE Led early H/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 1 | 62.0 | 17-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-21 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. INCANTO PREPARED, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with NUNCHUKS second and UNIVERSAL GO GO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite ZHAN JIANG ROCKS finished 5th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | INCANTO PREPARED | 33.3% | 3.00 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | MELBOURNE HALL | 11.1% | 9.03 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | NUNCHUKS | 10.4% | 9.63 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 8.6% | 11.58 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | LADY FIRST | 7.9% | 12.63 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 7.7% | 12.99 | 5 |
| 7 | 0 | SHADOW BREAKER | 6.4% | 15.68 | 7 |
| 8 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT | 6.0% | 16.79 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | BLOOMING SPIRIT | 4.1% | 24.43 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG | 2.1% | 47.31 | 9 |
| 11 | 0 | TIGER GLARE | 1.3% | 78.97 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | KIRAM | 1.1% | 88.21 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 51.5
PLACE
5 29
10 20
11 34.5
QUINELLA
10,11 287
QUINELLA PLACE
5,10 88
5,11 166
10,11 103.5
FORECAST
10,11 649
TIERCE
10,11,5 3,845
TRIO
5,10,11 887
FIRST 4
5,7,10,11 1,318
QUARTET
10,11,5,7 25,064
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
12/10 182.5
12/11 106.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 23