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Happy Valley · 2020-10-21

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 10 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-21 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MURRAY'S PARTNERS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with ANONYMA second and RIGHT HONOURABLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V 1.40.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C H Yip 3 2.1 N
2 11 ANONYMA Led early H W Lai · D E Ferraris 7 29.0 N
3 4 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/P/TT Z Purton · R Gibson 11 5.2 N
4 2 ELIGERE B J Moreira · Y S Tsui 9 9.2 1/2
5 6 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C Fownes 1 4.3 4
6 9 STAR PRESENT B/TT V Borges · D A Hayes 4 44.0 4-1/2
7 12 STAR WIN CP M L Yeung · D J Whyte 5 60.0 6-1/2
8 1 CHARITY WINGS Closed strongly B A Badel · C S Shum 10 16.0 6-1/2
9 5 GREAT TIMES B1 H N Wong · K L Man 2 120.0 6-3/4
10 7 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING B/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 8 14.0 12-1/4
8 LUCKY MISSILE N Callan · D J Hall
10 THIS IS CHARISMA M F Poon · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MURRAY'S PARTNERS2. ANONYMA+0.05L3. RIGHT HONOURABLE+0.05L4. ELIGERE+0.5L5. DAILY BEAUTY+4L6. STAR PRESENT+4.5L7. STAR WIN+6.5L8. CHARITY WINGS+6.5L9. GREAT TIMES+6.75L10. ELECTRIC LIGHTNING+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DAILY BEAUTY (29.4%) finished 5th — the winner MURRAY'S PARTNERS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 DAILY BEAUTY 29.4% 3.40 5
2 3 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 23.9% 4.18 1
3 2 ELIGERE 20.1% 4.98 4
4 4 RIGHT HONOURABLE 9.5% 10.51 3
5 11 ANONYMA 5.0% 19.87 2
6 7 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING 3.8% 26.01 10
7 1 CHARITY WINGS 3.2% 31.60 8
8 5 GREAT TIMES 2.2% 44.77 9
9 12 STAR WIN 1.4% 70.10 7
10 9 STAR PRESENT 1.4% 70.95 6
DAILY BEAUTYMURRAY'S PARTNERS — wonELIGERERIGHT HONOURABLEANONYMAELECTRIC LIGHTNINGCHARITY WINGSGREAT TIMESSTAR WINSTAR PRESENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 21

PLACE

3 11

4 14.5

11 48

QUINELLA

3,11 295

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 23

3,11 91

4,11 151.5

FORECAST

3,11 320

TIERCE

3,11,4 1,778

TRIO

3,4,11 403

FIRST 4

2,3,4,11 573

QUARTET

3,11,4,2 10,162

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 14.5

A3

4TH DOUBLE

2/3,8,10 150

2/11 418