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Happy Valley · 2020-10-21

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V 1.40.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C H Yip 3 2.1 N
2 0 ANONYMA Led early H W Lai · D E Ferraris 7 29.0 N
3 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/P/TT Z Purton · R Gibson 11 5.2 N
4 0 ELIGERE B J Moreira · Y S Tsui 9 9.2 1/2
5 0 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C Fownes 1 4.3 4
6 0 STAR PRESENT B/TT V Borges · D A Hayes 4 44.0 4-1/2
7 0 STAR WIN CP M L Yeung · D J Whyte 5 60.0 6-1/2
8 0 CHARITY WINGS Closed strongly B A Badel · C S Shum 10 16.0 6-1/2
9 0 GREAT TIMES B1 H N Wong · K L Man 2 120.0 6-3/4
10 0 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING B/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 8 14.0 12-1/4
— 0 LUCKY MISSILE N Callan · D J Hall — — —
— 0 THIS IS CHARISMA M F Poon · K W Lui — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-21 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MURRAY'S PARTNERS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with ANONYMA second and RIGHT HONOURABLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MURRAY'S PARTNERS—2. ANONYMA+0.05L3. RIGHT HONOURABLE+0.05L4. ELIGERE+0.5L5. DAILY BEAUTY+4L6. STAR PRESENT+4.5L7. STAR WIN+6.5L8. CHARITY WINGS+6.5L9. GREAT TIMES+6.75L10. ELECTRIC LIGHTNING+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DAILY BEAUTY (29.4%) finished 5th — the winner MURRAY'S PARTNERS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 DAILY BEAUTY 29.4% 3.40 5
2 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 23.9% 4.18 1
3 0 ELIGERE 20.1% 4.98 4
4 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 9.5% 10.51 3
5 0 ANONYMA 5.0% 19.87 2
6 0 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING 3.8% 26.01 10
7 0 CHARITY WINGS 3.2% 31.60 8
8 0 GREAT TIMES 2.2% 44.77 9
9 0 STAR WIN 1.4% 70.10 7
10 0 STAR PRESENT 1.4% 70.95 6
DAILY BEAUTYMURRAY'S PARTNERS — wonELIGERERIGHT HONOURABLEANONYMAELECTRIC LIGHTNINGCHARITY WINGSGREAT TIMESSTAR WINSTAR PRESENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 21

PLACE

3 11

4 14.5

11 48

QUINELLA

3,11 295

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 23

3,11 91

4,11 151.5

FORECAST

3,11 320

TIERCE

3,11,4 1,778

TRIO

3,4,11 403

FIRST 4

2,3,4,11 573

QUARTET

3,11,4,2 10,162

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14.5

A3 —

A2 —

4TH DOUBLE

2/3,8,10 150

2/11 418