Happy Valley · 2020-10-21
Race 6
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 0.56.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 10 | 7.4 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | FABULOUS EIGHT TT J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 11 | 5.0 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | HEART CONQUERED TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 12 | 9.5 | SH |
| 4 | 0 | HARMONY AND RICH Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 9 | 2.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | PING HAI GALAXY A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 3 | 17.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | EXCEED THE STARS B1 H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 5 | 39.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | THOU SHALL SING B M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 7 | 34.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | MOMENT OF POWER B C Wong · P O'Sullivan | C Wong | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 8.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | CIRCUIT SEVEN H1/TT1 K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 2 | 9.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | MR LUMIERES H N Wong · D J Hall | H N Wong | D J Hall | 4 | 48.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | GOLFMAN STAR M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 8 | 83.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | LITTLE BIRD V K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 1 | 14.0 | 8-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-21 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with FABULOUS EIGHT second and HEART CONQUERED third. The 2.9 favourite HARMONY AND RICH finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FABULOUS EIGHT | 23.4% | 4.28 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | HARMONY AND RICH | 20.9% | 4.78 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 17.9% | 5.59 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | THOU SHALL SING | 9.2% | 10.83 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | HEART CONQUERED | 6.2% | 16.09 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | LITTLE BIRD | 6.2% | 16.10 | 12 |
| 7 | 0 | PING HAI GALAXY | 5.8% | 17.13 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 2.6% | 37.96 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | EXCEED THE STARS | 2.6% | 38.12 | 6 |
| 10 | 0 | MOMENT OF POWER | 2.0% | 49.94 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | GOLFMAN STAR | 1.9% | 52.73 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | MR LUMIERES | 1.2% | 83.83 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 74
PLACE
1 18.5
9 24.5
10 21
QUINELLA
1,10 155
QUINELLA PLACE
1,9 92
1,10 53
9,10 84.5
FORECAST
1,10 336
TIERCE
1,10,9 2,158
TRIO
1,9,10 534
FIRST 4
1,5,9,10 244
QUARTET
1,10,9,5 7,068
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,11>3,8,10/1,9,10 33,902
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 23
5TH DOUBLE
3,8,10/1 134.5
3,8,10/10 22.5
TRIPLE TRIO
1,2,12/4,11>3,8,10/1,9,10 1,659,046
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,2,12/4,11>3,8,10/Any Combination 3,055