Sha Tin · 2020-11-04
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-04 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SWEETLY BABY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/2, with SHINEALOT second and DRAGON COMMANDER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SMART THINKER finished 14th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SWEETLY BABY Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.40.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 6.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | SHINEALOT Closed strongly K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 4.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | DRAGON COMMANDER Closed strongly H N Callan · Y S Tsui | N Callan | Y S Tsui | 12 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | SACRED TIMING Closed strongly B M F Poon · D A Hayes | M F Poon | D A Hayes | 10 | 42.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 5 | 10.0 | 6 |
| 6 | 13 | PROUD SKY Closed strongly V H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 7 | 31.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | CHARITYDREAM Led early TT M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 11 | 8.9 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B/H2 V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 9 | 110.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | FORTUNE BUDDY Closed strongly B M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 2 | 48.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | GO BALLISTIC SR/TT C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 14 | 6.9 | 12-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | BREAK RECORD Closed strongly CP-/H1/P1/TT B Shinn · L Ho | B Shinn | L Ho | 4 | 86.0 | 32-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | JOYFUL CHEERS B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 13 | 80.0 | 34-1/4 |
| 13 | 10 | JOY AVENUE XB K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 3 | 27.0 | 34-1/2 |
| 14 | 4 | SMART THINKER TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 8 | 3.6 | 38 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SMART THINKER | 17.8% | 5.61 | 14 |
| 2 | 6 | SHINEALOT | 16.3% | 6.12 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | SWEETLY BABY | 15.9% | 6.29 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | TURF BRILLIANT | 13.5% | 7.41 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | SACRED TIMING | 5.9% | 17.01 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | JOYFUL CHEERS | 5.3% | 18.72 | 12 |
| 7 | 13 | PROUD SKY | 5.2% | 19.09 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | CHARITYDREAM | 4.9% | 20.54 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | GO BALLISTIC | 4.4% | 22.77 | 10 |
| 10 | 14 | FORTUNE BUDDY | 2.8% | 35.30 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | JOY AVENUE | 2.2% | 44.61 | 13 |
| 12 | 3 | BREAK RECORD | 2.2% | 45.92 | 11 |
| 13 | 2 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 2.0% | 51.18 | 3 |
| 14 | 12 | THE JOY OF GIVING | 1.5% | 65.77 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 68
PLACE
2 35.5
5 24.5
6 17.5
QUINELLA
5,6 197.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 150
2,6 83.5
5,6 69.5
FORECAST
5,6 411
TIERCE
5,6,2 3,741
TRIO
2,5,6 858
FIRST 4
2,5,6,8 4,903
QUARTET
5,6,2,8 84,647
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
1/5 472
1/6 27
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 23
A1 —