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Sha Tin · 2020-11-04

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-04 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. PARTY EVERYDAY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with DOUBLE TAKE second and SKYEY SUPREME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite SKYEY SUPREME finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 3.7 N
2 11 DOUBLE TAKE Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 5.6 N
3 3 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 2 2.8 1
4 6 UNITE SPIRIT Closed strongly XB2 C Schofield · D E Ferraris 7 21.0 4-3/4
5 7 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly B N Callan · D E Ferraris 6 17.0 5-1/4
6 10 PARTY GENIUS XB/B1 A Hamelin · D J Whyte 4 15.0 7
7 8 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT P M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 10.0 7
8 12 JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly B-/P1/TT K C Leung · C Fownes 9 89.0 8
9 5 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE H M L Yeung · K H Ting 5 30.0 9
10 1 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 11 40.0 9-1/2
11 9 CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly B T Piccone · J Size 12 85.0 13
12 4 URBAN DANCER TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 8 16.0 15

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PARTY EVERYDAY2. DOUBLE TAKE+0.05L3. SKYEY SUPREME+1L4. UNITE SPIRIT+4.75L5. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+5.25L6. PARTY GENIUS+7L7. CHUNG WAH SPIRIT+7L8. JOLLY FOREVER+8L9. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+9L10. OWNERS' STAR+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PARTY EVERYDAY (32.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 PARTY EVERYDAY 32.0% 3.12 1
2 3 SKYEY SUPREME 25.3% 3.95 3
3 11 DOUBLE TAKE 10.2% 9.84 2
4 4 URBAN DANCER 7.4% 13.49 12
5 10 PARTY GENIUS 5.8% 17.37 6
6 8 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT 5.3% 18.75 7
7 6 UNITE SPIRIT 3.9% 25.91 4
8 1 OWNERS' STAR 2.5% 39.25 10
9 5 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 2.3% 43.69 9
10 9 CHAIRMAN LO 2.2% 44.91 11
11 7 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 1.5% 64.72 5
12 12 JOLLY FOREVER 1.5% 66.04 8
PARTY EVERYDAY — wonSKYEY SUPREMEDOUBLE TAKEURBAN DANCERPARTY GENIUSCHUNG WAH SPIRITUNITE SPIRITOWNERS' STARWEALTHY EMPLOYEECHAIRMAN LOLONDON LUCKYSTARJOLLY FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 37

PLACE

2 14.5

3 14.5

11 18

QUINELLA

2,11 96

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 24

2,11 37

3,11 32.5

FORECAST

2,11 237

TIERCE

2,11,3 522

TRIO

2,3,11 70

FIRST 4

2,3,6,11 220

QUARTET

2,11,3,6 4,673

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,5/2,3,11 8,426

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A2

A3

5TH DOUBLE

5/2 174

5/11 70

TRIPLE TRIO

1,4,8/2,4,5/2,3,11 1,453,861

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,8/2,4,5/Any Combination 29,077