Sha Tin · 2020-11-04
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SUPER ALLIANCES, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/2, with VICTORY IN HAND second and HERCULES third. The 1.7 favourite RESOLUTE finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUPER ALLIANCES P 1.09.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 6 | 5.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | VICTORY IN HAND TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | HERCULES B/XB2/TT1 C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 9 | 9.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | GOLFMAN STAR K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 34.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | RESOLUTE B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 7 | 1.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | LUCKY TURBO B/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 3 | 29.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | WINNING STRIKES B1 M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | SKY TREASURE H H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 10 | 25.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | CRUCIATUS XB/TT B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 2 | 203.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | GOLDIE FLANKER B2 T Piccone · K L Man | T Piccone | K L Man | 5 | 24.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | SPEED TO EXCEED H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 95.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | VIVA MAMA V/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 4 | 70.0 | 9-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | RESOLUTE | 27.7% | 3.61 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | HERCULES | 22.7% | 4.40 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | WINNING STRIKES | 13.7% | 7.28 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | SUPER ALLIANCES | 12.9% | 7.76 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | VICTORY IN HAND | 9.1% | 11.05 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | GOLDIE FLANKER | 4.9% | 20.53 | 10 |
| 7 | 1 | GOLFMAN STAR | 1.9% | 53.03 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | SPEED TO EXCEED | 1.8% | 56.71 | 11 |
| 9 | 7 | CRUCIATUS | 1.6% | 63.63 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | SKY TREASURE | 1.5% | 67.21 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | VIVA MAMA | 1.3% | 77.10 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | LUCKY TURBO | 1.0% | 99.31 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 56.5
PLACE
2 22
4 30
5 16.5
QUINELLA
4,5 378.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 139.5
2,5 56.5
4,5 96
FORECAST
5,4 570
TIERCE
5,4,2 3,898
TRIO
2,4,5 966
FIRST 4
1,2,4,5 2,146
QUARTET
5,4,2,1 38,762
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13.5
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
1/4 102
1/5 142