Sha Tin · 2020-11-04
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-04 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LUCKY PATCH, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with CZARSON second and STAR OF YUEN LONG third. The 4.1 favourite CZARSON finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LUCKY PATCH B1/H1 1.09.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 5 | 16.0 | N |
| 2 | 4 | CZARSON CP K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 7 | 4.1 | N |
| 3 | 2 | STAR OF YUEN LONG B C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 6 | 5.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | HONGKONG GREAT B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 10 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | PRANCE DRAGON B/TT V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 1 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | ENSHRINED H/B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 9.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | BLOTTING PAPER B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 12 | 5.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | WISDOM PATCH H-/XB/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 8 | 169.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | SUPERB DADDY TT- H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 9 | 97.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | SILVER FIG B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 3 | 5.9 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS B H N Wong · D J Hall | H N Wong | D J Hall | 4 | 19.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | HAPPY QIJI H/TT1 C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 2 | 140.0 | 22-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | STAR OF YUEN LONG | 27.3% | 3.67 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | CZARSON | 15.2% | 6.56 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | BLOTTING PAPER | 13.7% | 7.31 | 7 |
| 4 | 1 | SILVER FIG | 8.9% | 11.18 | 10 |
| 5 | 8 | ENSHRINED | 8.8% | 11.31 | 6 |
| 6 | 11 | PRANCE DRAGON | 8.0% | 12.45 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS | 6.0% | 16.69 | 11 |
| 8 | 6 | LUCKY PATCH | 4.4% | 22.82 | 1 |
| 9 | 12 | SUPERB DADDY | 3.4% | 29.10 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | WISDOM PATCH | 1.7% | 58.32 | 8 |
| 11 | 3 | HONGKONG GREAT | 1.7% | 58.61 | 4 |
| 12 | 5 | HAPPY QIJI | 0.8% | 130.04 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 160.5
PLACE
2 19
4 16.5
6 46
QUINELLA
4,6 439
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 42.5
2,6 147
4,6 145
FORECAST
6,4 1,011
TIERCE
6,4,2 4,347
TRIO
2,4,6 666
FIRST 4
2,3,4,6 1,478
QUARTET
6,4,2,3 47,793
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 23
6TH DOUBLE
2/4 18.5
2/6 997