Sha Tin · 2020-11-04
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-04 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ELITE PATCH, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by 5, with DEAL MAKER second and CLEAR CHOICE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ELITE PATCH Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.49.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 4 | 4.5 | 5 |
| 2 | 10 | DEAL MAKER Led early H V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 10 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | CLEAR CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 5 | 7.1 | 5-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 9 | 7.2 | 6-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | BEAR SLAM C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 6 | 7.1 | 6-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | RIGHT CHOICE B Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 7 | 5.7 | 7-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | BRAVE KING Closed strongly B-/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 8 | 12.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | NABOO STAR V/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 1 | 7.7 | 13-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | PEACH BLOSSOMS TT M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 3 | 40.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | MORE THAN A HORSE B-/SR-/H1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 2 | 9.1 | 22-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | NABOO STAR | 18.8% | 5.31 | 8 |
| 2 | 7 | MORE THAN A HORSE | 16.9% | 5.91 | 10 |
| 3 | 2 | RIGHT CHOICE | 16.9% | 5.93 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | CLEAR CHOICE | 14.5% | 6.88 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | BRAVE KING | 9.6% | 10.45 | 7 |
| 6 | 8 | RED ELYSEES | 7.3% | 13.72 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | ELITE PATCH | 6.2% | 16.15 | 1 |
| 8 | 1 | BEAR SLAM | 4.6% | 21.67 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | DEAL MAKER | 3.7% | 27.28 | 2 |
| 10 | 6 | PEACH BLOSSOMS | 1.5% | 66.19 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 45.5
PLACE
4 15
5 21.5
10 57.5
QUINELLA
4,10 496
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 71.5
4,10 171.5
5,10 164.5
FORECAST
4,10 1,475
TIERCE
4,10,5 4,822
TRIO
4,5,10 696
FIRST 4
4,5,8,10 1,096
QUARTET
4,10,5,8 33,199
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
5/4 684
5/10 225.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 19.5
A1 —