沙田 · 2020-11-04
第 5場
2020-11-04沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由M Chadwick策騎、J Size訓練的SUPER ALLIANCES勝出，贏出1-1/2。VICTORY IN HAND獲得亞軍；HERCULES獲得季軍。1.7倍大熱門RESOLUTE跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUPER ALLIANCES P 1.09.90 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 6 | 5.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | VICTORY IN HAND TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | HERCULES B/XB2/TT1 C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 9 | 9.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | GOLFMAN STAR K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 34.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | RESOLUTE B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 7 | 1.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | LUCKY TURBO B/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 3 | 29.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | WINNING STRIKES B1 M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | SKY TREASURE H H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 10 | 25.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | CRUCIATUS XB/TT B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 2 | 203.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | GOLDIE FLANKER B2 T Piccone · K L Man | T Piccone | K L Man | 5 | 24.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | SPEED TO EXCEED H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 95.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | VIVA MAMA V/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 4 | 70.0 | 9-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | RESOLUTE | 27.7% | 3.61 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | HERCULES | 22.7% | 4.40 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | WINNING STRIKES | 13.7% | 7.28 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | SUPER ALLIANCES | 12.9% | 7.76 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | VICTORY IN HAND | 9.1% | 11.05 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | GOLDIE FLANKER | 4.9% | 20.53 | 10 |
| 7 | 1 | GOLFMAN STAR | 1.9% | 53.03 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | SPEED TO EXCEED | 1.8% | 56.71 | 11 |
| 9 | 7 | CRUCIATUS | 1.6% | 63.63 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | SKY TREASURE | 1.5% | 67.21 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | VIVA MAMA | 1.3% | 77.10 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | LUCKY TURBO | 1.0% | 99.31 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 56.5
PLACE
2 22
4 30
5 16.5
QUINELLA
4,5 378.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 139.5
2,5 56.5
4,5 96
FORECAST
5,4 570
TIERCE
5,4,2 3,898
TRIO
2,4,5 966
FIRST 4
1,2,4,5 2,146
QUARTET
5,4,2,1 38,762
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13.5
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
1/4 102
1/5 142