沙田 · 2020-11-04
第 8場
2020-11-04沙田第8場，Class 2，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由Z Purton策騎、F C Lor訓練的KINGS SHIELD勝出，贏出3-3/4。STAR PERFORMANCE獲得亞軍；GLORIOUS ARTIST獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。頭馬以2.3倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | KINGS SHIELD 一路領先 CP 1.39.22 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 10 | 2.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | STAR PERFORMANCE 後段發力 TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 5 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | GLORIOUS ARTIST 後段發力 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 11 | 30.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | ELUSIVE STATE TT A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 2 | 5.7 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 後段發力 XB C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 7 | 8.6 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | BEAUTY LEGACY E/TT2 C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 6 | 8.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | TOUCH OF LUCK CP V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 1 | 14.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | ASSIMILATE 後段發力 B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 9 | 16.0 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | ENRICHMENT B M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 8 | 34.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | ALPHA HEDGE CP H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 4 | 50.0 | 13 |
| 11 | 2 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 13.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | ARROGANT TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 12 | 168.0 | 17 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | STAR PERFORMANCE | 22.4% | 4.46 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR | 12.6% | 7.95 | 11 |
| 3 | 3 | KINGS SHIELD | 9.5% | 10.54 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 9.5% | 10.55 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | TOUCH OF LUCK | 8.2% | 12.22 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | ALPHA HEDGE | 6.7% | 14.88 | 10 |
| 7 | 1 | ELUSIVE STATE | 6.6% | 15.05 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | BEAUTY LEGACY | 5.9% | 16.82 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | ENRICHMENT | 5.7% | 17.52 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | ASSIMILATE | 5.2% | 19.40 | 8 |
| 11 | 8 | GLORIOUS ARTIST | 5.0% | 19.88 | 3 |
| 12 | 10 | ARROGANT | 2.6% | 37.94 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 23
PLACE
3 12
8 59.5
11 35.5
QUINELLA
3,11 145
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 93
3,11 62.5
8,11 427
FORECAST
3,11 330
TIERCE
3,11,8 3,382
TRIO
3,8,11 762
FIRST 4
1,3,8,11 1,275
QUARTET
3,11,8,1 22,319
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 16.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,6/3,8,11 61,077
7TH DOUBLE
6/3 653.5
6/11 404.5
SIX UP
4/1/5/2/6/3 148,717
4,10/1,4/4,5/2,11/4,6/3,11 5,712
2 [C L Chau] —
TREBLE
2/6/3 2,640
2/6/11 2,443