沙田 · 2020-11-04
第 4場
2020-11-04沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由C L Chau策騎、C Fownes訓練的GUNNAR勝出，贏出4-1/4。GOLD COMET獲得亞軍；HEY PAL獲得季軍。頭馬以3.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | GUNNAR TT 1.09.49 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C L Chau · C Fownes | C L Chau | C Fownes | 11 | 3.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | GOLD COMET CP1 C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 9 | 25.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | HEY PAL B1/TT M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 12 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | DOLLAR REWARD P/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 2 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | WAYFOONG CHARMER BO A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 4.2 | 7-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | HANDSOME REBEL B/TT C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 10 | 5.4 | 7-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | STAR SUPERIOR K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 7 | 6.7 | 8-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | COBY OPPA M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 4 | 12.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | IMPECCABLE FELLOW B/H M L Yeung · R Gibson | M L Yeung | R Gibson | 3 | 75.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | APOLAR WARRIOR CP V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 5 | 42.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | SMART HUNTER XB/B1 B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 1 | 145.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | SO HAPPY B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 6 | 82.0 | 43-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | GUNNAR | 16.4% | 6.08 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | DOLLAR REWARD | 12.9% | 7.74 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | HANDSOME REBEL | 11.8% | 8.47 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | STAR SUPERIOR | 11.3% | 8.84 | 7 |
| 5 | 10 | IMPECCABLE FELLOW | 10.9% | 9.15 | 9 |
| 6 | 12 | WAYFOONG CHARMER | 10.5% | 9.52 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | GOLD COMET | 7.3% | 13.74 | 2 |
| 8 | 7 | APOLAR WARRIOR | 7.3% | 13.79 | 10 |
| 9 | 3 | COBY OPPA | 5.7% | 17.50 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | HEY PAL | 3.1% | 32.25 | 3 |
| 11 | 5 | SMART HUNTER | 1.4% | 71.73 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | SO HAPPY | 1.3% | 74.28 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 30.5
PLACE
1 14.5
4 66
8 46.5
QUINELLA
1,4 515.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 167.5
1,8 99
4,8 685.5
FORECAST
1,4 725
TIERCE
1,4,8 10,801
TRIO
1,4,8 3,224
FIRST 4
1,4,6,8 8,028
QUARTET
1,4,8,6 183,608
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,10/1,4,8 459,628
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 21
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
4/1 251
4/4 251.5