Happy Valley · 2020-11-18
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-18 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. STRATHCLYDE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by A T Millard, won by 2, with KA FORTUNE second and GREEN ENVY third. The 2.4 favourite KA FORTUNE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | STRATHCLYDE CP/TT 1.10.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · A T Millard | B Shinn | A T Millard | 2 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | KA FORTUNE B1 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 2.4 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | GREEN ENVY V/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 9 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | VIVA MAMA V-/TT- K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 8 | 40.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 11 | 33.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | WINNING WARRIOR V-/B2 M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 5 | 111.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | VITAL SPRING CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 5.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE B J Moreira · R Gibson | J Moreira | R Gibson | 6 | 6.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | APOLLOS BOW B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 7.2 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | FIRE AND GOLD B-/V1 V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 7 | 32.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | HAPPY WINNER CP K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 10 | 42.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | FLYING SPIRIT B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 78.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | KA FORTUNE | 24.3% | 4.12 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE | 21.5% | 4.65 | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | VITAL SPRING | 15.8% | 6.31 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | APOLLOS BOW | 10.2% | 9.83 | 9 |
| 5 | 7 | GREEN ENVY | 8.1% | 12.34 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 6.9% | 14.53 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | FLYING SPIRIT | 5.2% | 19.32 | 12 |
| 8 | 11 | FIRE AND GOLD | 3.1% | 32.54 | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | HAPPY WINNER | 2.3% | 44.05 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | WINNING WARRIOR | 1.0% | 103.18 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | STRATHCLYDE | 1.0% | 104.84 | 1 |
| 12 | 3 | VIVA MAMA | 0.8% | 132.68 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 102
PLACE
2 12
7 29.5
10 27
QUINELLA
2,10 130.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 43
2,10 50
7,10 162.5
FORECAST
10,2 598
TIERCE
10,2,7 2,934
TRIO
2,7,10 395
FIRST 4
2,3,7,10 4,065
QUARTET
10,2,7,3 83,035
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
3/2 88
3/10 2,583
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 43.5
A2 —