Happy Valley · 2020-11-18
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-18 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FAST PACE, ridden by N Callan and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with INCANTO PREPARED second and V CHEVALIERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite INCANTO PREPARED finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FAST PACE Closed strongly H/P 1.39.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 5 | 5.1 | N |
| 2 | 4 | INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 2.7 | N |
| 3 | 7 | V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 6 | 5.2 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | OWNERS' STAR B/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 9 | 30.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | BLOOMING SPIRIT B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 2 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | ELIGERE Led early B C L Chau · Y S Tsui | C L Chau | Y S Tsui | 8 | 9.4 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 10 | 30.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | CENTENARY IBIS SR-/B/XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 1 | 49.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | LUCKY MISSILE CP-/B1 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 5.4 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | AMAZING LUCK B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 29.0 | 19-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | INCANTO PREPARED | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | LUCKY MISSILE | 13.7% | 7.28 | 9 |
| 3 | 7 | V CHEVALIERS | 13.5% | 7.41 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | ELIGERE | 11.9% | 8.38 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | FAST PACE | 11.2% | 8.96 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | BLOOMING SPIRIT | 5.0% | 20.00 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING | 2.4% | 42.22 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | OWNERS' STAR | 1.6% | 62.49 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | AMAZING LUCK | 0.9% | 106.17 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | CENTENARY IBIS | 0.6% | 160.24 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 51
PLACE
4 12
5 20
7 16
QUINELLA
4,5 63
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 27.5
4,7 28.5
5,7 41.5
FORECAST
5,4 193
TIERCE
5,4,7 513
TRIO
4,5,7 81
FIRST 4
2,4,5,7 429
QUARTET
5,4,7,2 6,144
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 18
3RD DOUBLE
10/4 96
10/5 645.5