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Happy Valley · 2021-03-24

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BULLETPROOF Closed strongly TT 1.39.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · P F Yiu 10 9.9 HD
2 0 DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 8.3 HD
3 0 ALL BEST FRIENDS Closed strongly B H W Lai · K L Man 12 42.0 1-1/4
4 0 SAVVY KINGMAN Led early J Moreira · F C Lor 7 2.1 1-1/4
5 0 OWNERS' STAR B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 5 5.0 1-3/4
6 0 WIND GLIDER B/TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 1 23.0 2
7 0 DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly P C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 53.0 3-1/2
8 0 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT C L Chau · W Y So 4 5.6 3-1/2
9 0 HAPPY WIN WIN TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 2 20.0 3-3/4
10 0 MING WARRIOR TT N Callan · D E Ferraris 3 128.0 4-1/2
11 0 AEROSONIC Closed strongly P-/TT V Borges · J Size 9 165.0 5-1/2
12 0 CABLE SPEED C Wong · R Gibson 6 274.0 5-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-24 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BULLETPROOF, ridden by R Maia and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with DREAM WARRIORS second and ALL BEST FRIENDS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite SAVVY KINGMAN finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULLETPROOF—2. DREAM WARRIORS+0.2L3. ALL BEST FRIENDS+1.25L4. SAVVY KINGMAN+1.25L5. OWNERS' STAR+1.75L6. WIND GLIDER+2L7. DIONYSUS COLLIN+3.5L8. ZHAN JIANG ROCKS+3.5L9. HAPPY WIN WIN+3.75L10. MING WARRIOR+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SAVVY KINGMAN (29.4%) finished 4th — the winner BULLETPROOF was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SAVVY KINGMAN 29.4% 3.40 4
2 0 OWNERS' STAR 26.4% 3.78 5
3 0 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS 9.2% 10.89 8
4 0 DREAM WARRIORS 7.7% 13.03 2
5 0 WIND GLIDER 5.4% 18.46 6
6 0 DIONYSUS COLLIN 5.4% 18.66 7
7 0 BULLETPROOF 5.2% 19.11 1
8 0 HAPPY WIN WIN 5.1% 19.54 9
9 0 ALL BEST FRIENDS 2.8% 35.37 3
10 0 AEROSONIC 1.7% 57.51 11
11 0 CABLE SPEED 0.8% 121.07 12
12 0 MING WARRIOR 0.8% 131.28 10
SAVVY KINGMANOWNERS' STARZHAN JIANG ROCKSDREAM WARRIORSWIND GLIDERDIONYSUS COLLINBULLETPROOF — wonHAPPY WIN WINALL BEST FRIENDSAEROSONICCABLE SPEEDMING WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 99

PLACE

3 20

9 27

12 80

QUINELLA

3,9 310

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 89.5

3,12 211

9,12 408.5

FORECAST

9,3 666

TIERCE

9,3,12 14,243

TRIO

3,9,12 2,965

FIRST 4

3,9,10,12 882

QUARTET

9,3,12,10 32,150

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

11/3 50

11/9 399.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 24