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Happy Valley · 2021-03-24

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-24 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MORE THAN ENOUGH, ridden by N Callan and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with REGENCY MASTER second and GLORIOUS LOVER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite GLORIOUS LOVER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.39.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MORE THAN ENOUGH Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · A S Cruz 10 9.3 SH
2 4 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 8 23.0 SH
3 1 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B Z Purton · C H Yip 2 4.5 3/4
4 8 PLIKCLONE B C L Chau · D J Hall 6 5.9 1
5 5 SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 10.0 1-1/4
6 2 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · K L Man 3 4.8 1-3/4
7 7 OSCAR GLORY CP1 K Teetan · F C Lor 1 5.1 1-3/4
8 3 AMBITIOUS HEART Closed strongly B-/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 11 74.0 2-3/4
9 10 THUNDER STOMP J Moreira · Y S Tsui 9 8.9 3-1/2
10 12 SUN SUN FA FA Closed strongly TT C Wong · W Y So 7 73.0 3-3/4
11 9 STAR OF RED TT H N Wong · K H Ting 12 174.0 5-1/4
12 11 HAPPY WARRIOR Led early H-/CP/TT1 M L Yeung · C Fownes 5 43.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MORE THAN ENOUGH2. REGENCY MASTER+0.1L3. GLORIOUS LOVER+0.75L4. PLIKCLONE+1L5. SEAWEED FORTUNE+1.25L6. V CHEVALIERS+1.75L7. OSCAR GLORY+1.75L8. AMBITIOUS HEART+2.75L9. THUNDER STOMP+3.5L10. SUN SUN FA FA+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GLORIOUS LOVER (24.9%) finished 3rd — the winner MORE THAN ENOUGH was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GLORIOUS LOVER 24.9% 4.01 3
2 7 OSCAR GLORY 17.7% 5.64 7
3 10 THUNDER STOMP 14.1% 7.11 9
4 2 V CHEVALIERS 11.1% 8.97 6
5 8 PLIKCLONE 9.2% 10.89 4
6 5 SEAWEED FORTUNE 7.5% 13.37 5
7 6 MORE THAN ENOUGH 6.8% 14.73 1
8 4 REGENCY MASTER 3.3% 30.18 2
9 3 AMBITIOUS HEART 2.1% 47.01 8
10 11 HAPPY WARRIOR 1.5% 64.60 12
11 12 SUN SUN FA FA 1.3% 74.83 10
12 9 STAR OF RED 0.4% 264.16 11
GLORIOUS LOVEROSCAR GLORYTHUNDER STOMPV CHEVALIERSPLIKCLONESEAWEED FORTUNEMORE THAN ENOUGH — wonREGENCY MASTERAMBITIOUS HEARTHAPPY WARRIORSUN SUN FA FASTAR OF RED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 93

PLACE

1 18

4 57

6 31.5

QUINELLA

4,6 1,240

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 157.5

1,6 89

4,6 331

FORECAST

6,4 1,689

TIERCE

6,4,1 9,568

TRIO

1,4,6 1,270

FIRST 4

1,4,6,8 1,735

QUARTET

6,4,1,8 54,391

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 26.5

A2

5TH DOUBLE

11/4 98.5

11/6 249