Happy Valley · 2021-03-24
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-24 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MORE THAN ENOUGH, ridden by N Callan and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with REGENCY MASTER second and GLORIOUS LOVER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite GLORIOUS LOVER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MORE THAN ENOUGH Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 10 | 9.3 | SH |
| 2 | 4 | REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 8 | 23.0 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 2 | 4.5 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | PLIKCLONE B C L Chau · D J Hall | C L Chau | D J Hall | 6 | 5.9 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 3 | 4.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | OSCAR GLORY CP1 K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 5.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | AMBITIOUS HEART Closed strongly B-/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 11 | 74.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | THUNDER STOMP J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 9 | 8.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | SUN SUN FA FA Closed strongly TT C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 7 | 73.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | STAR OF RED TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 12 | 174.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | HAPPY WARRIOR Led early H-/CP/TT1 M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 5 | 43.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | OSCAR GLORY | 17.7% | 5.64 | 7 |
| 3 | 10 | THUNDER STOMP | 14.1% | 7.11 | 9 |
| 4 | 2 | V CHEVALIERS | 11.1% | 8.97 | 6 |
| 5 | 8 | PLIKCLONE | 9.2% | 10.89 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | SEAWEED FORTUNE | 7.5% | 13.37 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | MORE THAN ENOUGH | 6.8% | 14.73 | 1 |
| 8 | 4 | REGENCY MASTER | 3.3% | 30.18 | 2 |
| 9 | 3 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 2.1% | 47.01 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 1.5% | 64.60 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | SUN SUN FA FA | 1.3% | 74.83 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | STAR OF RED | 0.4% | 264.16 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 93
PLACE
1 18
4 57
6 31.5
QUINELLA
4,6 1,240
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 157.5
1,6 89
4,6 331
FORECAST
6,4 1,689
TIERCE
6,4,1 9,568
TRIO
1,4,6 1,270
FIRST 4
1,4,6,8 1,735
QUARTET
6,4,1,8 54,391
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 26.5
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
11/4 98.5
11/6 249