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Happy Valley · 2021-03-24

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-24 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FARSHAD, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1/2, with SURREALISM second and EXCEPTIONAL NICE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite WEALTHY DELIGHT finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.39.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 FARSHAD Wire to wire CP 1.39.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui 1 8.5 1/2
2 8 SURREALISM Closed strongly B T Piccone · D E Ferraris 2 11.0 1/2
3 11 EXCEPTIONAL NICE M F Poon · W Y So 4 17.0 3/4
4 3 SUNNY STAR Closed strongly A Badel · K W Lui 12 7.1 1-1/2
4 9 NOTHING NEW Closed strongly V Borges · C W Chang 6 17.0 1-1/2
6 5 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 8.9 1-3/4
7 10 FAST PACE Closed strongly H M L Yeung · C Fownes 10 8.1 1-3/4
8 2 KING OPIE V J Moreira · F C Lor 8 8.5 4
9 4 WEALTHY DELIGHT Z Purton · J Size 5 2.9 4
10 12 TOTAL POWER B H N Wong · D J Hall 3 68.0 4-1/4
11 7 PIANO SOLO M Chadwick · C S Shum 11 30.0 4-3/4
12 1 PERPETUUM TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 7 78.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FARSHAD2. SURREALISM+0.5L3. EXCEPTIONAL NICE+0.75L4. SUNNY STAR+1.5L4. NOTHING NEW+1.5L6. PRIME MINISTER+1.75L7. FAST PACE+1.75L8. KING OPIE+4L9. WEALTHY DELIGHT+4L10. TOTAL POWER+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WEALTHY DELIGHT (33.3%) finished 9th — the winner FARSHAD was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 WEALTHY DELIGHT 33.3% 3.00 9
2 3 SUNNY STAR 18.1% 5.53 4
3 6 FARSHAD 11.6% 8.64 1
4 2 KING OPIE 11.5% 8.70 8
5 10 FAST PACE 6.3% 15.83 7
6 9 NOTHING NEW 5.5% 18.17 4
7 5 PRIME MINISTER 4.8% 20.78 6
8 8 SURREALISM 3.2% 31.00 2
9 11 EXCEPTIONAL NICE 2.6% 38.38 3
10 7 PIANO SOLO 1.5% 67.05 11
11 12 TOTAL POWER 1.1% 94.97 10
12 1 PERPETUUM 0.5% 193.15 12
WEALTHY DELIGHTSUNNY STARFARSHAD — wonKING OPIEFAST PACENOTHING NEWPRIME MINISTERSURREALISMEXCEPTIONAL NICEPIANO SOLOTOTAL POWERPERPETUUM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 85

PLACE

6 27.5

8 35.5

11 51

QUINELLA

6,8 467

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 150

6,11 206.5

8,11 335

FORECAST

6,8 1,414

TIERCE

6,8,11 12,931

TRIO

6,8,11 2,644

FIRST 4

3,6,8,11 2,055

6,8,9,11 4,744

QUARTET

6,8,11,3 53,140

6,8,11,9 99,588

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 35

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,12/6,8,11 304,971

8TH DOUBLE

7/6 1,003.5

7/8 290

SIX UP

3,4/11,12/4,6/5,11/2,7/6,8 83,671

4/11/6/5/7/6 3,796,269

2 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

5/7/6 5,767

5/7/8 1,930