Happy Valley · 2021-03-24
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-24 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FARSHAD, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1/2, with SURREALISM second and EXCEPTIONAL NICE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite WEALTHY DELIGHT finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | FARSHAD Wire to wire CP 1.39.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 1 | 8.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | SURREALISM Closed strongly B T Piccone · D E Ferraris | T Piccone | D E Ferraris | 2 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 4 | 17.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SUNNY STAR Closed strongly A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 12 | 7.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | NOTHING NEW Closed strongly V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 6 | 17.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 9 | 8.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | FAST PACE Closed strongly H M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 10 | 8.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | KING OPIE V J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 8 | 8.5 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | WEALTHY DELIGHT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 5 | 2.9 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | TOTAL POWER B H N Wong · D J Hall | H N Wong | D J Hall | 3 | 68.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | PIANO SOLO M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 11 | 30.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | PERPETUUM TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 7 | 78.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WEALTHY DELIGHT | 33.3% | 3.00 | 9 |
| 2 | 3 | SUNNY STAR | 18.1% | 5.53 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | FARSHAD | 11.6% | 8.64 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | KING OPIE | 11.5% | 8.70 | 8 |
| 5 | 10 | FAST PACE | 6.3% | 15.83 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | NOTHING NEW | 5.5% | 18.17 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | PRIME MINISTER | 4.8% | 20.78 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | SURREALISM | 3.2% | 31.00 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE | 2.6% | 38.38 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | PIANO SOLO | 1.5% | 67.05 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | TOTAL POWER | 1.1% | 94.97 | 10 |
| 12 | 1 | PERPETUUM | 0.5% | 193.15 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 85
PLACE
6 27.5
8 35.5
11 51
QUINELLA
6,8 467
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 150
6,11 206.5
8,11 335
FORECAST
6,8 1,414
TIERCE
6,8,11 12,931
TRIO
6,8,11 2,644
FIRST 4
3,6,8,11 2,055
6,8,9,11 4,744
QUARTET
6,8,11,3 53,140
6,8,11,9 99,588
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 35
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,12/6,8,11 304,971
8TH DOUBLE
7/6 1,003.5
7/8 290
SIX UP
3,4/11,12/4,6/5,11/2,7/6,8 83,671
4/11/6/5/7/6 3,796,269
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
5/7/6 5,767
5/7/8 1,930