Happy Valley · 2021-04-21
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | VINCY Closed strongly SR/CP1/TT 2.14.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 2 | 8.7 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | XIANG BAI QI B K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 5 | 5.1 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | ARROGANT B/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 1 | 3.0 | N |
| 4 | 0 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM Closed strongly CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 4 | 6.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | ABOVE B/TT1 A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 3 | 5.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | PAKISTAN FRIEND Led early TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 8 | 11.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | DYNAMIC EAGLE M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 7 | 9.3 | 15 |
| 8 | 0 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 6 | 41.0 | 27-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-21 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VINCY, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with XIANG BAI QI second and ARROGANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite ARROGANT finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | ARROGANT | 40.1% | 2.50 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM | 17.3% | 5.77 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | DYNAMIC EAGLE | 12.8% | 7.81 | 7 |
| 4 | 0 | VINCY | 8.2% | 12.27 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | XIANG BAI QI | 8.1% | 12.41 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | ABOVE | 6.0% | 16.56 | 5 |
| 7 | 0 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 6.0% | 16.72 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS | 1.6% | 63.69 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 87
PLACE
2 27
3 14
4 15.5
QUINELLA
2,4 206.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 37
2,4 69
3,4 32
FORECAST
2,4 432
TIERCE
2,4,3 1,566
TRIO
2,3,4 170
FIRST 4
1,2,3,4 131
QUARTET
2,4,3,1 5,265
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 44.5
A1 —