Happy Valley · 2021-04-21
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-21 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. THE RUNNER, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with CAPITAL STAR second and H Z TOURBILLON third. The 2.0 favourite CAPITAL STAR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | THE RUNNER 1.09.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 11 | 8.3 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | CAPITAL STAR B1 J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 2 | 2.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | H Z TOURBILLON TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 9 | 5.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | PING HAI GALAXY A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 1 | 17.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | MIG ENERGY XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 3 | 8.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | NOBLE STEED B V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 4 | 35.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | ALCARI V K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 5 | 22.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | MERIDIAN GENIUS C Y Ho · A T Millard | C Y Ho | A T Millard | 7 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | WINSTON'S LAD B H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 10 | 98.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | MOST WELCOME CP H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 8 | 17.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | HERCULES B/XB/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 6 | 24.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CAPITAL STAR | 34.3% | 2.91 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | MIG ENERGY | 20.0% | 4.99 | 5 |
| 3 | 11 | H Z TOURBILLON | 14.0% | 7.12 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | PING HAI GALAXY | 5.9% | 17.01 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | HERCULES | 5.5% | 18.27 | 11 |
| 6 | 9 | THE RUNNER | 5.0% | 19.96 | 1 |
| 7 | 4 | ALCARI | 4.6% | 21.69 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | MOST WELCOME | 3.5% | 28.24 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | MERIDIAN GENIUS | 3.4% | 29.04 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | NOBLE STEED | 2.3% | 43.54 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | WINSTON'S LAD | 1.3% | 74.68 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 83.5
PLACE
1 12
9 22.5
11 20
QUINELLA
1,9 87
QUINELLA PLACE
1,9 37.5
1,11 29
9,11 75
FORECAST
9,1 271
TIERCE
9,1,11 1,514
TRIO
1,9,11 171
FIRST 4
1,5,9,11 508
QUARTET
9,1,11,5 15,357
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 30
A1 —
7TH DOUBLE
3/1 36
3/9 1,288.5