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Happy Valley · 2021-04-21

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C 11 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-21 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CANTSTOPTHEFEELING, ridden by V Borges and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with AMAZING ROCKY second and JOYFUL WIN third. The 4.5 favourite SPICY SO GOOD finished 10th.

Result

Official · 0.57.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT 0.57.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · K L Man 3 8.9 1/2
2 8 AMAZING ROCKY H K Teetan · T P Yung 6 6.3 1/2
3 2 JOYFUL WIN B K C Leung · P F Yiu 7 9.2 2
4 1 HARMONY FIRE XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte 11 5.0 2-1/4
5 10 TRAVEL DATUK B M Chadwick · R Gibson 1 11.0 2-1/4
6 9 FOREVER CITY H/TT1 M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 12 121.0 3-1/2
7 7 ALLEZ B1 B Shinn · C Fownes 4 45.0 3-1/2
8 4 VICTORY IN HAND TT T Piccone · K W Lui 8 12.0 3-3/4
9 11 STEEL WIN B1 A Hamelin · C W Chang 5 9.4 3-3/4
10 6 SPICY SO GOOD B-/V1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 2 4.5 8-1/2
11 5 MY MY MY XB J Moreira · F C Lor 9 9.2 10-1/4
12 OVERSUBSCRIBED M F Poon · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CANTSTOPTHEFEELING2. AMAZING ROCKY+0.5L3. JOYFUL WIN+2L4. HARMONY FIRE+2.25L5. TRAVEL DATUK+2.25L6. FOREVER CITY+3.5L7. ALLEZ+3.5L8. VICTORY IN HAND+3.75L9. STEEL WIN+3.75L10. SPICY SO GOOD+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MY MY MY (21.4%) finished 11th — the winner CANTSTOPTHEFEELING was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MY MY MY 21.4% 4.68 11
2 8 AMAZING ROCKY 16.7% 5.98 2
3 3 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING 12.4% 8.08 1
4 2 JOYFUL WIN 10.7% 9.31 3
5 6 SPICY SO GOOD 10.1% 9.89 10
6 1 HARMONY FIRE 9.2% 10.85 4
7 4 VICTORY IN HAND 7.2% 13.94 8
8 10 TRAVEL DATUK 6.2% 16.07 5
9 7 ALLEZ 2.5% 39.59 7
10 11 STEEL WIN 2.0% 50.63 9
11 9 FOREVER CITY 1.6% 63.14 6
MY MY MYAMAZING ROCKYCANTSTOPTHEFEELING — wonJOYFUL WINSPICY SO GOODHARMONY FIREVICTORY IN HANDTRAVEL DATUKALLEZSTEEL WINFOREVER CITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 89

PLACE

2 27.5

3 22.5

8 20

QUINELLA

3,8 168

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 117.5

2,8 99.5

3,8 68

FORECAST

3,8 350

TIERCE

3,8,2 3,014

TRIO

2,3,8 745

FIRST 4

1,2,3,8 916

QUARTET

3,8,2,1 22,782

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,9,12/2,3,8 251,397

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 45

A1

6TH DOUBLE

9/3 858.5

9/8 157.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,7,8/2,9,12/Any Combination 12,485