Happy Valley · 2021-04-21
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-21 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BRIGHT KID, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by N, with LAND POWER second and OSCAR GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite MORE THAN ENOUGH finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB 1.39.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 4 | 5.3 | N |
| 2 | 5 | LAND POWER B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 5 | 6.1 | N |
| 3 | 4 | OSCAR GLORY Closed strongly CP K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 4.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | MING WARRIOR Closed strongly TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 10 | 101.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | ALL JOYFUL Closed strongly M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 2 | 7.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 7 | 2.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | THUNDER STOMP Led early B2 M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 9 | 18.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 8 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | CHEEKY PRAWN E/B1 A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 6 | 39.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | STRONG ALLIANCE V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 3 | 96.0 | 6 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | OSCAR GLORY | 28.4% | 3.53 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | MORE THAN ENOUGH | 25.3% | 3.95 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | BRIGHT KID | 15.9% | 6.29 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | LAND POWER | 15.1% | 6.60 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | THUNDER STOMP | 4.5% | 22.06 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | ALL JOYFUL | 4.3% | 23.27 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 2.8% | 35.15 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 | CHEEKY PRAWN | 1.9% | 52.81 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | STRONG ALLIANCE | 0.9% | 105.35 | 10 |
| 10 | 3 | MING WARRIOR | 0.8% | 129.03 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 53.5
PLACE
1 18.5
4 14
5 19.5
QUINELLA
1,5 136.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 44
1,5 49
4,5 44
FORECAST
1,5 312
TIERCE
1,5,4 958
TRIO
1,4,5 151
FIRST 4
1,3,4,5 2,539
QUARTET
1,5,4,3 39,312
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 18.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
7/1 147.5
7/5 43