Happy Valley · 2021-11-17
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COMPASSION SPIRIT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with UNIVERSAL GO GO second and FORTUNE HERO third. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | COMPASSION SPIRIT B 1.09.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 9 | 3.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | UNIVERSAL GO GO B/TT C Schofield · K W Lui | C Schofield | K W Lui | 5 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | FORTUNE HERO B/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 8 | 37.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | FORTUNE CARRIER B/TT2 J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 10 | 6.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | TEAM GOODLUCK TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 6 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | NOIR RIDER B K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 3 | 5.8 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | TELECOM ROCKET B M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 4 | 9.1 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE B C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 7 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | TELECOM CHEETAH B/TT H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 2 | 66.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | PANZERSCHRECK E/P/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 1 | 69.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | KOWLOON EAST STAR H R Maia · K H Ting | R Maia | K H Ting | 11 | 33.0 | 12-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FORTUNE CARRIER | 32.0% | 3.13 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 17.6% | 5.68 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | NOIR RIDER | 15.0% | 6.65 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | VALIANT ELEGANCE | 6.0% | 16.59 | 10 |
| 5 | 2 | TELECOM ROCKET | 5.9% | 16.87 | 7 |
| 6 | 12 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 5.2% | 19.07 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | FORTUNE HERO | 4.6% | 21.71 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 4.0% | 25.18 | 2 |
| 9 | 10 | TEAM GOODLUCK | 3.8% | 26.23 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | KOWLOON EAST STAR | 2.8% | 35.43 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | PANZERSCHRECK | 2.0% | 50.82 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | TELECOM CHEETAH | 1.0% | 103.64 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 31
PLACE
1 16
3 25
8 91
QUINELLA
1,3 185.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 62.5
1,8 203
3,8 387
FORECAST
1,3 261
TIERCE
1,3,8 6,175
TRIO
1,3,8 1,653
FIRST 4
1,3,4,8 1,865
QUARTET
1,3,8,4 30,592
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
6/1 268
6/3 282.5
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 20.5
A2 —