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Happy Valley · 2021-11-17

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-17 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. ASTROLOGER, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1, with HARMONY FIRE second and RESOLUTE third. The 2.9 favourite HARMONY FIRE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 ASTROLOGER 0.56.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · D J Whyte 9 134.0 1
2 1 HARMONY FIRE XB/CP1 Z Purton · D J Whyte 7 2.9 1
3 2 RESOLUTE B K Teetan · A T Millard 3 5.7 1-3/4
4 4 METRO WARRIOR B C Schofield · D A Hayes 11 17.0 2-1/4
5 3 DECISIVE TWELVE TT C Y Ho · W Y So 5 17.0 2-3/4
6 8 HEART CONQUERED C L Chau · R Gibson 8 7.2 3-1/4
7 7 ESCAPE ROUTE J Moreira · J Size 4 15.0 5
8 11 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT R Maia · K L Man 2 8.9 5-1/2
9 5 GOOD VIEW CLARICO K H Chan · C H Yip 12 68.0 5-1/2
10 6 MAGIC PHOENIX H T Mo · L Ho 6 75.0 6
11 12 AMAZING ROCKY H M Chadwick · T P Yung 10 11.0 7-3/4
12 9 PROPICE A Badel · C Fownes 1 7.5 8
0 TRIPLE TRIPLE M F Poon · F C Lor

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ASTROLOGER2. HARMONY FIRE+1L3. RESOLUTE+1.75L4. METRO WARRIOR+2.25L5. DECISIVE TWELVE+2.75L6. HEART CONQUERED+3.25L7. ESCAPE ROUTE+5L8. CANTSTOPTHEFEELING+5.5L9. GOOD VIEW CLARICO+5.5L10. MAGIC PHOENIX+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick HARMONY FIRE (17.2%) finished 2nd — the winner ASTROLOGER was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 HARMONY FIRE 17.2% 5.82 2
2 2 RESOLUTE 15.7% 6.37 3
3 7 ESCAPE ROUTE 15.6% 6.42 7
4 3 DECISIVE TWELVE 9.2% 10.85 5
5 8 HEART CONQUERED 9.0% 11.06 6
6 11 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING 7.1% 14.10 8
7 9 PROPICE 6.3% 15.78 12
8 4 METRO WARRIOR 5.7% 17.41 4
9 5 GOOD VIEW CLARICO 5.5% 18.28 9
10 12 AMAZING ROCKY 4.9% 20.59 11
11 6 MAGIC PHOENIX 3.1% 32.27 10
12 10 ASTROLOGER 0.7% 143.08 1
HARMONY FIRERESOLUTEESCAPE ROUTEDECISIVE TWELVEHEART CONQUEREDCANTSTOPTHEFEELINGPROPICEMETRO WARRIORGOOD VIEW CLARICOAMAZING ROCKYMAGIC PHOENIXASTROLOGER — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 1,341.5

PLACE

1 14.5

2 17.5

10 222

QUINELLA

1,10 1,448.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 34

1,10 489

2,10 924.5

FORECAST

10,1 3,672

TIERCE

10,1,2 31,602

TRIO

1,2,10 2,821

FIRST 4

1,2,4,10 5,195

QUARTET

10,1,2,4 246,721

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 27.5

5TH DOUBLE

4/1 15.5

4/10 2,447.5