Happy Valley · 2021-11-17
Race 9
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FA FA Closed strongly TT 1.39.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 6 | 2.5 | N |
| 2 | 0 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE Closed strongly E A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 8 | 13.0 | N |
| 3 | 0 | MERCURIAL Led early H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 2 | 16.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | THE ANOMALY M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | SUPER OASIS Closed strongly B R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 10 | 45.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | HALL OF CHAMP TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 4 | 8.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 12 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 7.4 | 2 |
| 9 | 0 | SURREALISM B L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 1 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | INCANTO PREPARED E/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 39.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | STAR OF YUEN LONG B- C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 3 | 11.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | RIGHT HONOURABLE H/PC/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 7 | 46.0 | 7 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-17 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FA FA, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with EXCEPTIONAL NICE second and MERCURIAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FA FA | 31.0% | 3.23 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | THE ANOMALY | 15.3% | 6.52 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | KING'S CAPITAL | 12.1% | 8.28 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | INCANTO PREPARED | 7.8% | 12.82 | 10 |
| 5 | 0 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE | 6.7% | 15.02 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | HALL OF CHAMP | 6.3% | 15.77 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | MERCURIAL | 5.3% | 18.99 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | STAR OF YUEN LONG | 4.0% | 24.91 | 11 |
| 9 | 0 | SACRED IBIS | 3.8% | 26.06 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | SURREALISM | 3.3% | 29.88 | 9 |
| 11 | 0 | RIGHT HONOURABLE | 2.2% | 45.14 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | SUPER OASIS | 2.1% | 46.80 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 25
PLACE
2 14
7 31.5
11 43
QUINELLA
2,7 143
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 57
2,11 85
7,11 283
FORECAST
2,7 167
TIERCE
2,7,11 2,056
TRIO
2,7,11 767
FIRST 4
2,7,10,11 1,284
QUARTET
2,7,11,10 14,728
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 21
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,12/2,7,11 151,751
8TH DOUBLE
5/2 32
5/7 41
SIX UP
2/4/10/11/5/2 4,171,577
2,10/1,4/1,10/2,11/5,12/2,7 438
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
11/5/2 263
11/5/7 225