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Happy Valley · 2021-11-17

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD 1650m Course C 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUNNY STAR Closed strongly 1.39.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K W Lui 8 5.4 SH
2 0 TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early Z Purton · Y S Tsui 5 5.0 SH
3 0 BELUGA Closed strongly H M Chadwick · D J Hall 6 4.9 N
4 0 SUNSHINE WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 7 16.0 3/4
5 0 CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT R Maia · K W Lui 1 9.2 1-1/4
6 0 SOLAR WAI WAI M F Poon · F C Lor 2 11.0 1-1/2
7 0 KILINDINI Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A T Millard 11 13.0 2-1/4
8 0 SAVAQUIN C Schofield · J Size 4 9.4 2-3/4
9 0 THE ROCK P- J Moreira · C Fownes 10 7.0 3-1/4
10 0 BEAR AGAIN SR L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 9 28.0 4-1/4
11 0 RED DESERT H Bentley · J Size 3 57.0 5-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-17 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with TELECOM FIGHTERS second and BELUGA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite BELUGA finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNNY STAR—2. TELECOM FIGHTERS+0.1L3. BELUGA+0.05L4. SUNSHINE WARRIOR+0.75L5. CHANCHENG PRINCE+1.25L6. SOLAR WAI WAI+1.5L7. KILINDINI+2.25L8. SAVAQUIN+2.75L9. THE ROCK+3.25L10. BEAR AGAIN+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TELECOM FIGHTERS (21.4%) finished 2nd — the winner SUNNY STAR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TELECOM FIGHTERS 21.4% 4.67 2
2 0 CHANCHENG PRINCE 16.6% 6.04 5
3 0 BELUGA 13.9% 7.20 3
4 0 THE ROCK 10.8% 9.28 9
5 0 SUNNY STAR 8.8% 11.40 1
6 0 SOLAR WAI WAI 6.2% 16.22 6
7 0 KILINDINI 5.7% 17.69 7
8 0 BEAR AGAIN 5.4% 18.40 10
9 0 SAVAQUIN 5.4% 18.40 8
10 0 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 4.3% 23.49 4
11 0 RED DESERT 1.6% 60.84 11
TELECOM FIGHTERSCHANCHENG PRINCEBELUGATHE ROCKSUNNY STAR — wonSOLAR WAI WAIKILINDINIBEAR AGAINSAVAQUINSUNSHINE WARRIORRED DESERT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 54

PLACE

2 19.5

9 21

11 18.5

QUINELLA

2,11 152

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 70

2,11 55

9,11 54.5

FORECAST

11,2 315

TIERCE

11,2,9 1,446

TRIO

2,9,11 301

FIRST 4

2,7,9,11 855

QUARTET

11,2,9,7 18,149

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,10/2,9,11 101,293

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 28.5

6TH DOUBLE

10/2 1,269

10/11 10,207.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,4,5/1,2,10/2,9,11 2,565,829

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,5/1,2,10/Any Combination 5,341