Happy Valley · 2021-11-17
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-17 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with TELECOM FIGHTERS second and BELUGA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite BELUGA finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SUNNY STAR Closed strongly 1.39.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 8 | 5.4 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 5 | 5.0 | SH |
| 3 | 9 | BELUGA Closed strongly H M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 6 | 4.9 | N |
| 4 | 7 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 7 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 1 | 9.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | SOLAR WAI WAI M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | KILINDINI Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 11 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | SAVAQUIN C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 4 | 9.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | THE ROCK P- J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 10 | 7.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | BEAR AGAIN SR L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 9 | 28.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | RED DESERT H Bentley · J Size | H Bentley | J Size | 3 | 57.0 | 5-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | TELECOM FIGHTERS | 21.4% | 4.67 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | CHANCHENG PRINCE | 16.6% | 6.04 | 5 |
| 3 | 9 | BELUGA | 13.9% | 7.20 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | THE ROCK | 10.8% | 9.28 | 9 |
| 5 | 11 | SUNNY STAR | 8.8% | 11.40 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | SOLAR WAI WAI | 6.2% | 16.22 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | KILINDINI | 5.7% | 17.69 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | BEAR AGAIN | 5.4% | 18.40 | 10 |
| 9 | 4 | SAVAQUIN | 5.4% | 18.40 | 8 |
| 10 | 7 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR | 4.3% | 23.49 | 4 |
| 11 | 3 | RED DESERT | 1.6% | 60.84 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 54
PLACE
2 19.5
9 21
11 18.5
QUINELLA
2,11 152
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 70
2,11 55
9,11 54.5
FORECAST
11,2 315
TIERCE
11,2,9 1,446
TRIO
2,9,11 301
FIRST 4
2,7,9,11 855
QUARTET
11,2,9,7 18,149
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,10/2,9,11 101,293
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 28.5
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
10/2 1,269
10/11 10,207.5
TRIPLE TRIO
1,4,5/1,2,10/2,9,11 2,565,829
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,4,5/1,2,10/Any Combination 5,341