Happy Valley · 2021-11-17

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-17 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. FAST PACE, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with RED IMPACT second and VILLA FIONN third. The winner led throughout. The 5.7 favourite ALL JOYFUL finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.50.78

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	FAST PACE Wire to wire H 1.50.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes	K H Chan	C Fownes	9	126 lb	7.6	1/2
2	10	RED IMPACT Closed strongly C Y Ho · D A Hayes	C Y Ho	D A Hayes	12	123 lb	7.9	1/2
3	7	VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B K Teetan · P F Yiu	K Teetan	P F Yiu	7	126 lb	6.0	1-1/4
4	6	NUNCHUKS TT K C Leung · C Fownes	K C Leung	C Fownes	6	126 lb	18.0	2
5	5	UNITE SPIRIT B/XB C L Chau · D E Ferraris	C L Chau	D E Ferraris	4	126 lb	13.0	2-1/4
6	9	WINNING VOLATILITY Closed strongly PC J Moreira · K W Lui	J Moreira	K W Lui	5	124 lb	9.1	2-1/2
7	8	ALL JOYFUL Closed strongly B M Chadwick · T P Yung	M Chadwick	T P Yung	11	124 lb	5.7	3
8	4	MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly B Z Purton · C H Yip	Z Purton	C H Yip	10	131 lb	10.0	3-1/4
9	11	KUNGFUMASTER PANDA B/TT A Badel · P O'Sullivan	A Badel	P O'Sullivan	3	118 lb	11.0	3-1/2
10	1	DOUBLE TAKE B M L Yeung · C Fownes	M L Yeung	C Fownes	1	133 lb	35.0	4
11	3	METHANE B L Ferraris · D E Ferraris	L Ferraris	D E Ferraris	8	132 lb	11.0	4-3/4
12	12	DIONYSUS COLLIN P H N Wong · K H Ting	H N Wong	K H Ting	2	113 lb	13.0	4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick FAST PACE (16.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	FAST PACE	16.7%	6.00	1	7.6
2	4	MURRAY'S PARTNERS	10.4%	9.60	8	10.0
3	8	ALL JOYFUL	10.1%	9.89	7	5.7
4	10	RED IMPACT	9.7%	10.36	2	7.9
5	1	DOUBLE TAKE	9.6%	10.43	10	35.0
6	9	WINNING VOLATILITY	8.4%	11.91	6	9.1
7	5	UNITE SPIRIT	7.8%	12.79	5	13.0
8	7	VILLA FIONN	6.8%	14.78	3	6.0
9	11	KUNGFUMASTER PANDA	6.2%	16.07	9	11.0
10	6	NUNCHUKS	6.2%	16.08	4	18.0
11	3	METHANE	5.7%	17.67	11	11.0
12	12	DIONYSUS COLLIN	2.5%	40.48	12	13.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 76.5

PLACE

2 25

7 21

10 29.5

QUINELLA

2,10 304

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 78

2,10 107

7,10 119.5

FORECAST

2,10 719

TIERCE

2,10,7 4,421

TRIO

2,7,10 788

FIRST 4

2,6,7,10 3,484

QUARTET

2,10,7,6 62,499

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 18.5

3RD DOUBLE

1/2 287.5

1/10 43.5

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