Happy Valley · 2023-02-22 · 20:48
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-22 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PACKING SUCCEEDER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by L Ho, won by 1/2, with RIVER VIEWS second and V CHEVALIERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PACKING SUCCEEDER Closed strongly 1.40.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 5 | 3.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | RIVER VIEWS Led early C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 5.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 6 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | BABY Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 8 | 41.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | LEAN HERO CP K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | VILLA FIONN B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 1 | 4.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 11 | 55.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | HAPPY HERO B M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 4 | 28.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | COPARTNER FIONN Closed strongly B-/H/V1/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 12 | 23.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | HA LEE CHARM TT L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 7 | 62.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | ODE TO JOY B/XB2/TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 10 | 15.0 | 8-3/4 |
| — | 1 | VIVA POPCORN Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PACKING SUCCEEDER | 22.9% | 4.36 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | LEAN HERO | 20.8% | 4.81 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | VILLA FIONN | 12.5% | 8.01 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | RIVER VIEWS | 10.1% | 9.89 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | V CHEVALIERS | 10.1% | 9.91 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | COPARTNER FIONN | 7.0% | 14.34 | 9 |
| 7 | 7 | ODE TO JOY | 5.5% | 18.18 | 11 |
| 8 | 4 | BABY | 3.8% | 26.13 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | HAPPY HERO | 2.8% | 35.86 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | HA LEE CHARM | 2.6% | 38.95 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | RIGHT HONOURABLE | 2.0% | 51.20 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 38
PLACE
5 15
9 19.5
11 37.5
QUINELLA
5,9 143.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 53.5
5,11 90.5
9,11 88.5
FORECAST
5,9 245
TIERCE
5,9,11 1,595
TRIO
5,9,11 441
FIRST 4
4,5,9,11 1,895
QUARTET
5,9,11,4 20,901
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,11/9,11>1,5 17,625
3 PICK 1
A2 22
A3 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
4/1,5 82.5
4/9 39.5