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Happy Valley · 2023-02-22 · 21:17

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.49
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ALLGREEKTOME TT 1.09.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D A Hayes 7 2.9 2
2 0 KOKUSHI MUSOU B1/TT K Teetan · C Fownes 6 11.0 2
3 0 HAPPY SOUL CP/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 3 3.5 2-3/4
5 0 PUBLICIST H Z Purton · P C Ng 5 6.8 4-1/2
6 0 TOP TOP TEA S De Sousa · C H Yip 4 9.6 5
7 0 SUPER JOY P M L Yeung · L Ho 9 65.0 6
8 0 GENERAL ACE CP A Badel · K W Lui 11 42.0 7-1/2
10 0 LUCKY RUBY B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 10 69.0 8-3/4
11 0 JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 48.0 11-1/2
12 0 SHENZHOU TWELVE B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 99.0 11-3/4
— 0 HAPPY UNITED TT1 L Currie · J Richards — 27.0 7-1/2
— 0 SURE JOYFUL V K C Leung · P F Yiu — 8.2 2-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ALLGREEKTOME, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2, with KOKUSHI MUSOU second and HAPPY SOUL third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALLGREEKTOME—2. KOKUSHI MUSOU+2L3. HAPPY SOUL+2.75L5. PUBLICIST+4.5L6. TOP TOP TEA+5L7. SUPER JOY+6L8. GENERAL ACE+7.5L10. LUCKY RUBY+8.75L11. JIANGXI STAMINA+11.5L12. SHENZHOU TWELVE+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HAPPY SOUL (21.8%) finished 3rd — the winner ALLGREEKTOME was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HAPPY SOUL 21.8% 4.59 3
2 0 PUBLICIST 20.6% 4.86 5
3 0 ALLGREEKTOME 20.1% 4.97 1
4 0 TOP TOP TEA 10.6% 9.44 6
5 0 SURE JOYFUL 7.9% 12.71 —
6 0 KOKUSHI MUSOU 5.8% 17.23 2
7 0 JIANGXI STAMINA 4.9% 20.49 11
8 0 LUCKY RUBY 1.9% 52.10 10
9 0 HAPPY UNITED 1.9% 52.40 —
10 0 GENERAL ACE 1.9% 52.70 8
11 0 SUPER JOY 1.4% 70.89 7
12 0 SHENZHOU TWELVE 1.2% 82.44 12
HAPPY SOULPUBLICISTALLGREEKTOME — wonTOP TOP TEASURE JOYFULKOKUSHI MUSOUJIANGXI STAMINALUCKY RUBYHAPPY UNITEDGENERAL ACESUPER JOYSHENZHOU TWELVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 29

PLACE

2 31.5

4 15

5 13

QUINELLA

2,4 158

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 66.5

2,5 70.5

4,5 25

FORECAST

4,2 223

TIERCE

4,2,5 798

TRIO

2,4,5 144

FIRST 4

2,4,5,9 238

QUARTET

4,2,5,9 4,202

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 16

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

1,5/2 50

1,5/4 86.5