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Happy Valley · 2023-02-22 · 21:17

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ALLGREEKTOME, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2, with KOKUSHI MUSOU second and HAPPY SOUL third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.49
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 ALLGREEKTOME TT 1.09.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D A Hayes 7 2.9 2
2 2 KOKUSHI MUSOU B1/TT K Teetan · C Fownes 6 11.0 2
3 5 HAPPY SOUL CP/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 3 3.5 2-3/4
4 9 SURE JOYFUL V K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 8.2 2-3/4
5 1 PUBLICIST H Z Purton · P C Ng 5 6.8 4-1/2
6 3 TOP TOP TEA S De Sousa · C H Yip 4 9.6 5
7 10 SUPER JOY P M L Yeung · L Ho 9 65.0 6
8 6 HAPPY UNITED TT1 L Currie · J Richards 8 27.0 7-1/2
8 12 GENERAL ACE CP A Badel · K W Lui 11 42.0 7-1/2
10 11 LUCKY RUBY B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 10 69.0 8-3/4
11 7 JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 48.0 11-1/2
12 8 SHENZHOU TWELVE B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 99.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALLGREEKTOME2. KOKUSHI MUSOU+2L3. HAPPY SOUL+2.75L4. SURE JOYFUL+2.75L5. PUBLICIST+4.5L6. TOP TOP TEA+5L7. SUPER JOY+6L8. HAPPY UNITED+7.5L8. GENERAL ACE+7.5L10. LUCKY RUBY+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HAPPY SOUL (21.8%) finished 3rd — the winner ALLGREEKTOME was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 HAPPY SOUL 21.8% 4.59 3
2 1 PUBLICIST 20.6% 4.86 5
3 4 ALLGREEKTOME 20.1% 4.97 1
4 3 TOP TOP TEA 10.6% 9.44 6
5 9 SURE JOYFUL 7.9% 12.71 4
6 2 KOKUSHI MUSOU 5.8% 17.23 2
7 7 JIANGXI STAMINA 4.9% 20.49 11
8 11 LUCKY RUBY 1.9% 52.10 10
9 6 HAPPY UNITED 1.9% 52.40 8
10 12 GENERAL ACE 1.9% 52.70 8
11 10 SUPER JOY 1.4% 70.89 7
12 8 SHENZHOU TWELVE 1.2% 82.44 12
HAPPY SOULPUBLICISTALLGREEKTOME — wonTOP TOP TEASURE JOYFULKOKUSHI MUSOUJIANGXI STAMINALUCKY RUBYHAPPY UNITEDGENERAL ACESUPER JOYSHENZHOU TWELVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 29

PLACE

2 31.5

4 15

5 13

QUINELLA

2,4 158

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 66.5

2,5 70.5

4,5 25

FORECAST

4,2 223

TIERCE

4,2,5 798

TRIO

2,4,5 144

FIRST 4

2,4,5,9 238

QUARTET

4,2,5,9 4,202

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A3

A2

5TH DOUBLE

1,5/2 50

1,5/4 86.5