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Happy Valley · 2023-02-22 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. E BROTHER, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by K L Man, won by N, with E RAINBOW second and SAVVY DELIGHT third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 E BROTHER B/TT 1.09.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · K L Man 2 2.7 N
2 11 E RAINBOW TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 1 8.4 N
3 1 SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT Z Purton · J Size 6 7.1 N
4 7 TIMESTORM XB/TT M F Poon · D J Hall 12 16.0 1-1/4
5 5 SIGHT HERO B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 9 24.0 2
6 6 LYRICAL MOTION TT C Y Ho · W Y So 3 6.4 2-3/4
7 12 SUNNY AND GOLD B/TT R Maia · C H Yip 10 30.0 3-1/4
8 3 HARMONY N HOME K Teetan · C S Shum 11 10.0 4-1/4
9 2 STOICISM B/TT Y L Chung · R Gibson 5 25.0 4-1/2
10 9 VANTASTIC CHOICE A Badel · C H Yip 4 10.0 4-3/4
11 8 CRAIG'S MASTER SR1/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 8 85.0 5-1/4
12 10 OUR CLASS ACT H M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 7 18.0 5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. E BROTHER2. E RAINBOW+0.05L3. SAVVY DELIGHT+0.05L4. TIMESTORM+1.25L5. SIGHT HERO+2L6. LYRICAL MOTION+2.75L7. SUNNY AND GOLD+3.25L8. HARMONY N HOME+4.25L9. STOICISM+4.5L10. VANTASTIC CHOICE+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick E BROTHER (23.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 E BROTHER 23.7% 4.22 1
2 1 SAVVY DELIGHT 16.6% 6.02 3
3 6 LYRICAL MOTION 11.2% 8.90 6
4 7 TIMESTORM 11.0% 9.07 4
5 3 HARMONY N HOME 8.8% 11.34 8
6 9 VANTASTIC CHOICE 7.4% 13.48 10
7 11 E RAINBOW 4.8% 21.04 2
8 10 OUR CLASS ACT 4.2% 23.60 12
9 12 SUNNY AND GOLD 4.2% 23.68 7
10 5 SIGHT HERO 4.2% 23.72 5
11 2 STOICISM 2.8% 35.86 9
12 8 CRAIG'S MASTER 1.0% 104.28 11
E BROTHER — wonSAVVY DELIGHTLYRICAL MOTIONTIMESTORMHARMONY N HOMEVANTASTIC CHOICEE RAINBOWOUR CLASS ACTSUNNY AND GOLDSIGHT HEROSTOICISMCRAIG'S MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 27.5

PLACE

1 24

4 13

11 27

QUINELLA

4,11 106.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 46

1,11 120.5

4,11 46

FORECAST

4,11 223

TIERCE

4,11,1 1,441

TRIO

1,4,11 269

FIRST 4

1,4,7,11 929

QUARTET

4,11,1,7 13,943

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 19

3RD DOUBLE

11/4 728.5

11/11 296