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Happy Valley · 2026-02-04 · 19:35

SHAN KWONG HANDICAP

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 8 runners
Track detail & race-day changes (2)
Penetrometer 2.71 #1 MOMENTS IN TIME — Jockey Change #7 AWESOME FLUKE — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:37.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 AWESOME FLUKE Closed strongly P/TT 1:37.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P F Yiu 1 18.0 —
2 6 SOLEIL FIGHTER Closed strongly XB-/TT1 M Guyon · D A Hayes 7 8.3 1/2
3 3 HUGE WAVE Closed strongly TT A Badel · K H Ting 4 4.9 1-3/4
4 8 SILVERY BREEZE Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 8 2.5 2-1/2
5 2 HELENE FEELING B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 2 4.0 2-3/4
6 1 MOMENTS IN TIME TT Z Purton · C S Shum 3 14.0 4-1/4
7 4 KAHOLO ANGEL TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 6 13.0 4-1/4
8 5 NEW FOREST Led early TT L Hewitson · M Newnham 5 18.0 14-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 ("SHAN KWONG HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-02-04 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AWESOME FLUKE, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P F Yiu, won, with SOLEIL FIGHTER second and HUGE WAVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite SILVERY BREEZE finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AWESOME FLUKE—2. SOLEIL FIGHTER+0.5L3. HUGE WAVE+1.75L4. SILVERY BREEZE+2.5L5. HELENE FEELING+2.75L6. MOMENTS IN TIME+4.25L7. KAHOLO ANGEL+4.25L8. NEW FOREST+14.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick HELENE FEELING (26.2%) finished 5th — the winner AWESOME FLUKE was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HELENE FEELING 26.2% 3.82 5
2 8 SILVERY BREEZE 23.1% 4.32 4
3 5 NEW FOREST 14.5% 6.90 8
4 6 SOLEIL FIGHTER 10.2% 9.81 2
5 3 HUGE WAVE 8.9% 11.29 3
6 1 MOMENTS IN TIME 8.3% 12.04 6
7 7 AWESOME FLUKE 4.8% 20.84 1
8 4 KAHOLO ANGEL 4.0% 24.82 7
HELENE FEELINGSILVERY BREEZENEW FORESTSOLEIL FIGHTERHUGE WAVEMOMENTS IN TIMEAWESOME FLUKE — wonKAHOLO ANGEL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 187

PLACE

3 15.5

6 22.5

7 42

QUINELLA

6,7 565.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 52

3,7 98

6,7 144

FORECAST

7,6 1,082

TIERCE

7,6,3 5,868

TRIO

3,6,7 662

FIRST 4

3,6,7,8 325

QUARTET

7,6,3,8 15,762

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,6/3,6,7 22,074

2ND DOUBLE

2/6 91

2/7 1,311