Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2026-02-04 · 15:00

TSUI MAN HANDICAP

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 ("TSUI MAN HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-02-04 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CORLEONE, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won, with VIVA GRACIOUSNESS second and URANUS STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.71 #7 SAMARKAND — Jockey Change

Result

Official · 1:39.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CORLEONE Closed strongly TT 1:39.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes 3 2.1
2 8 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS Closed strongly TT A Badel · A S Cruz 4 12.0 3/4
3 3 URANUS STAR Led early XB1 L Ferraris · K W Lui 10 18.0 1-1/4
4 6 FORTUNATE SON Closed strongly TT M Guyon · W K Mo 1 4.6 2-1/4
5 1 KEEFY Closed strongly M F Poon · F C Lor 8 29.0 3-1/2
6 9 WIN BEAUTY VIVA Closed strongly K Teetan · J Size 12 9.7 4
7 7 SAMARKAND CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 44.0 4
8 4 SUPER UNICORN Closed strongly CP A Atzeni · M Newnham 7 18.0 4
9 2 MR ASCENDENCY V/TT R Kingscote · P F Yiu 6 45.0 4-1/2
10 11 ALLCASH B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 5 10.0 5
11 12 KING OF SELECTION Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · W K Mo 9 130.0 5
12 10 LO PAN SPIRIT B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 2 22.0 8-3/4
0 FAMILY KNIGHT CP-/E1/TT · D J Whyte
0 REAL GENTLEMAN CP/H/TT · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORLEONE2. VIVA GRACIOUSNESS+0.75L3. URANUS STAR+1.25L4. FORTUNATE SON+2.25L5. KEEFY+3.5L6. WIN BEAUTY VIVA+4L7. SAMARKAND+4L8. SUPER UNICORN+4L9. MR ASCENDENCY+4.5L10. ALLCASH+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick CORLEONE (44.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 CORLEONE 44.7% 2.24 1
2 6 FORTUNATE SON 12.8% 7.79 4
3 11 ALLCASH 10.0% 9.99 10
4 9 WIN BEAUTY VIVA 6.4% 15.57 6
5 8 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 4.8% 20.96 2
6 10 LO PAN SPIRIT 4.7% 21.25 12
7 3 URANUS STAR 4.4% 22.64 3
8 4 SUPER UNICORN 3.7% 26.76 8
9 1 KEEFY 3.2% 30.88 5
10 7 SAMARKAND 2.6% 38.78 7
11 2 MR ASCENDENCY 1.7% 57.80 9
12 12 KING OF SELECTION 0.9% 114.04 11
CORLEONE — wonFORTUNATE SONALLCASHWIN BEAUTY VIVAVIVA GRACIOUSNESSLO PAN SPIRITURANUS STARSUPER UNICORNKEEFYSAMARKANDMR ASCENDENCYKING OF SELECTION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 21

PLACE

3 44

5 13

8 22.5

QUINELLA

5,8 136.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 67.5

3,8 276.5

5,8 48.5

FORECAST

5,8 166

TIERCE

5,8,3 1,828

TRIO

3,5,8 451

FIRST 4

3,5,6,8 419

QUARTET

5,8,3,6 7,081

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

1/1/5 5,485

1/1/8 3,856

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,11/3,5,8 50,387

8TH DOUBLE

1/5 297

1/8 115.5

SIX UP

7,12/8,12/4,5/1,9/1,11/5,8 15,570

12/8/5/1/1/5 565,722

6 [A Atzeni]

1 [C Fownes]