Sha Tin · 2026-05-03 · 08:20

THE QUEEN MOTHER MEMORIAL CUP (HANDICAP)

Race 6

Group 3 YIELDING 2400m Course B 7 runners

Race 6 ("THE QUEEN MOTHER MEMORIAL CUP (HANDICAP)") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-03 was Group 3 over 2400m, run on YIELDING going. ROMANTIC THOR, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won, with GENTLEMEN LEGACY second and WINNING WING third. The winner led throughout. The 2.6 favourite NAUTICAL FORCE finished 4th.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)

Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #7 ROMANTIC THOR — Weight Change

Result

Official · 2:30.76

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	ROMANTIC THOR Wire to wire XB/TT 2:30.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	2	116 lb	5.4	—
2	3	GENTLEMEN LEGACY Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz	H Bowman	A S Cruz	1	129 lb	3.5	1/2
3	2	WINNING WING Closed strongly H T Mo · K W Lui	H T Mo	K W Lui	5	135 lb	9.0	1-3/4
4	5	NAUTICAL FORCE Closed strongly K Teetan · J Size	K Teetan	J Size	7	124 lb	2.6	5
5	1	STUNNING PEACH CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	3	135 lb	18.0	5-1/2
6	6	FORTUNE BOY B H Bentley · D A Hayes	H Bentley	D A Hayes	4	115 lb	6.6	6-1/2
7	4	JOY OF SPRING TT E C W Wong · C Fownes	E C W Wong	C Fownes	6	124 lb	25.0	15

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26

The model's top pick NAUTICAL FORCE (33.3%) finished 4th — the winner ROMANTIC THOR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	NAUTICAL FORCE	33.3%	3.01	4	2.6
2	3	GENTLEMEN LEGACY	27.5%	3.64	2	3.5
3	2	WINNING WING	12.0%	8.36	3	9.0
4	7	ROMANTIC THOR	8.3%	12.07	1	5.4
5	6	FORTUNE BOY	8.1%	12.31	6	6.6
6	1	STUNNING PEACH	5.5%	18.19	5	18.0
7	4	JOY OF SPRING	5.4%	18.65	7	25.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 54

PLACE

2 19

3 13.5

7 15

QUINELLA

3,7 77

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 43

2,7 84.5

3,7 30.5

FORECAST

7,3 232

TIERCE

7,3,2 1,771

TRIO

2,3,7 293

FIRST 4

2,3,5,7 77

QUARTET

7,3,2,5 4,051

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

8/3 58.5

8/7 574

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