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Sha Tin · 2026-05-03 · 06:15

THE HILLTOP IN THE VALLEY 1200M HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 4 ("THE HILLTOP IN THE VALLEY 1200M HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. INCREDIBLE MOMENT, ridden by R Kingscote and trained by M Newnham, won, with RIDING HIGH second and SUNNY Q third. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998

Result

Official · 1:10.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 INCREDIBLE MOMENT 1:10.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Kingscote · M Newnham 1 3.8
2 13 RIDING HIGH CP A Badel · D J Whyte 4 4.4 3
3 14 SUNNY Q CP/TT H Bentley · W Y So 3 11.0 3-3/4
4 2 GENIUS BABY CP/XB/TT K C Leung · B Crawford 10 51.0 4-1/4
5 10 GORGEOUS VICTORY TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 7 11.0 4-1/4
6 7 SUPER RUBICK KID B1 J Orman · Y S Tsui 2 71.0 4-1/4
7 4 GRAND PATCH H Bowman · K L Man 11 5.5 5-1/2
8 5 LOVELY MILES CP1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 9 81.0 7-3/4
9 11 KA YING RADIANCE Z Purton · D A Hayes 14 7.6 8-1/4
10 1 CALL ME SPARKLE H/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui 12 9.0 8-3/4
11 6 PRESTIGE EMPEROR CP1 K Teetan · C H Yip 8 95.0 9-3/4
12 9 DRAGON HALL B B Avdulla · D J Hall 6 105.0 12-1/4
13 3 QUARTZ LEGEND B1/TT E Brown · C Fownes 13 31.0 14-1/4
14 8 SYNERGY EXPRESS A Atzeni · J Size 5 41.0 15
0 EMERGING STAR B · C W Chang
0 NOBLE PATCH · P C Ng

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. INCREDIBLE MOMENT2. RIDING HIGH+3L3. SUNNY Q+3.75L4. GENIUS BABY+4.25L5. GORGEOUS VICTORY+4.25L6. SUPER RUBICK KID+4.25L7. GRAND PATCH+5.5L8. LOVELY MILES+7.75L9. KA YING RADIANCE+8.25L10. CALL ME SPARKLE+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick GRAND PATCH (16.9%) finished 7th — the winner INCREDIBLE MOMENT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GRAND PATCH 16.9% 5.91 7
2 13 RIDING HIGH 14.9% 6.72 2
3 12 INCREDIBLE MOMENT 12.1% 8.25 1
4 11 KA YING RADIANCE 9.1% 10.99 9
5 1 CALL ME SPARKLE 8.5% 11.75 10
6 10 GORGEOUS VICTORY 8.5% 11.82 5
7 14 SUNNY Q 6.7% 14.96 3
8 3 QUARTZ LEGEND 5.7% 17.65 13
9 2 GENIUS BABY 5.2% 19.29 4
10 8 SYNERGY EXPRESS 3.6% 27.67 14
11 6 PRESTIGE EMPEROR 3.4% 29.54 11
12 5 LOVELY MILES 2.2% 44.48 8
13 9 DRAGON HALL 1.7% 58.50 12
14 7 SUPER RUBICK KID 1.5% 66.68 6
GRAND PATCHRIDING HIGHINCREDIBLE MOMENT — wonKA YING RADIANCECALL ME SPARKLEGORGEOUS VICTORYSUNNY QQUARTZ LEGENDGENIUS BABYSYNERGY EXPRESSPRESTIGE EMPERORLOVELY MILESDRAGON HALLSUPER RUBICK KID

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 38

PLACE

12 15.5

13 18.5

14 31

QUINELLA

12,13 83

QUINELLA PLACE

12,13 34.5

12,14 67

13,14 82

FORECAST

12,13 148

TIERCE

12,13,14 801

TRIO

12,13,14 185

FIRST 4

2,12,13,14 1,616

QUARTET

12,13,14,2 21,226

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

4/12 331.5

4/13 86