沙田 · 2019-09-15
第 10場
2019-09-15沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的HAPPY FUN勝出，贏出1-1/2。COT CAMPBELL獲得亞軍；MIGHTY MAVERICK獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。頭馬以2.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HAPPY FUN 一路領先 B/TT 1.21.20 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 2.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | COT CAMPBELL 後段發力 XB/B1 K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 7 | 56.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | MIGHTY MAVERICK 後段發力 PC/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | CIRCUIT HASSLER B/H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 8 | 5.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | FLYING QUEST 後段發力 B K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 13 | 90.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | LOOKING GOOD B G van Niekerk · F C Lor | G van Niekerk | F C Lor | 4 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 13 | AMAZING LUCK B/SR K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | ULTIMATE GLORY V H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 3 | 70.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | TASHIDELEK 後段發力 B-/CP2/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 14 | 30.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 1 | ASSIMILATE B/H/TT C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 6 | 8.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | UNICORNBABY B R Bayliss · R Gibson | R Bayliss | R Gibson | 11 | 35.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 14 | HO HO FEEL H/XB H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 2 | 150.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | MONGOLIAN LEGEND T H So · Y S Tsui | T H So | Y S Tsui | 5 | 23.0 | 20-1/2 |
| 14 | 6 | BEAR AGAIN SR M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 12 | 154.0 | 26-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HAPPY FUN | 29.5% | 3.39 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | LOOKING GOOD | 11.1% | 9.01 | 6 |
| 3 | 11 | CIRCUIT HASSLER | 10.5% | 9.55 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | TASHIDELEK | 10.1% | 9.89 | 9 |
| 5 | 7 | MONGOLIAN LEGEND | 6.2% | 16.25 | 13 |
| 6 | 1 | ASSIMILATE | 5.9% | 17.00 | 10 |
| 7 | 13 | AMAZING LUCK | 5.9% | 17.08 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | MIGHTY MAVERICK | 5.6% | 17.81 | 2 |
| 9 | 14 | HO HO FEEL | 5.0% | 20.08 | 12 |
| 10 | 5 | FLYING QUEST | 3.1% | 31.98 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 | COT CAMPBELL | 2.3% | 43.14 | 2 |
| 12 | 10 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 2.1% | 48.56 | 8 |
| 13 | 12 | UNICORNBABY | 1.7% | 60.14 | 11 |
| 14 | 6 | BEAR AGAIN | 1.2% | 84.01 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 20
PLACE
2 112
3 11
9 37
QUINELLA
2,3 229
3,9 69
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 171.5
2,9 796.5
3,9 57
TIERCE
3,2,9 3,292
3,9,2 2,882
TRIO
2,3,9 2,066
FIRST 4
2,3,9,11 1,842
QUARTET
3,2,9,11 17,343
3,9,2,11 14,028
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A2 —
A3 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,7/2,3,9 167,052
9TH DOUBLE
5/2 679
5/3 766.5
5/9 295.5
SIX UP
3/6/5/1,11/5/3 707,834
3,8/6,8/5,11/1,5,11/5,7/2,3,9 1,689
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
1,11/5/2 1,807
1,11/5/3 1,601
1,11/5/9 715