沙田 · 2019-09-15
第 4場
2019-09-15沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Y Ho策騎、K W Lui訓練的VITAL SPRING勝出，贏出N。BIG BULLY獲得亞軍；FLYING NOBLE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.2倍大熱門CAPTAIN BOSS跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | VITAL SPRING 後段發力 TT 1.23.10 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 5.6 | N |
| 2 | 8 | BIG BULLY 後段發力 B N Callan · D J Hall | N Callan | D J Hall | 2 | 6.0 | N |
| 3 | 1 | FLYING NOBLE 後段發力 CP1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 4 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | JOY MASTER 後段發力 TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 12 | 8.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | HARBOUR CENTURY B/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 7 | 39.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | CAPTAIN BOSS 後段發力 B/XB/TT M Chadwick · A T Millard | M Chadwick | A T Millard | 1 | 4.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 5 | 5.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | FRIENDS OF NANJING 後段發力 TT C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 11 | 37.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | KING MORTAR 早段領放 V2 H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 10 | 146.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | SOCCER MASTER 後段發力 J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 14 | 26.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | LIVERBIRD STAR K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 9.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 13 | CHATER THUNDER B-/H1/XB1/TT- A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 3 | 35.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 13 | 11 | FIRE AND GOLD K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 13 | 115.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 14 | 14 | WHAMPOA STAR T H So · Y S Tsui | T H So | Y S Tsui | 8 | 85.0 | 5-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LIVERBIRD STAR | 14.5% | 6.89 | 11 |
| 2 | 8 | BIG BULLY | 14.4% | 6.94 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | SOCCER MASTER | 12.5% | 7.98 | 10 |
| 4 | 9 | CAPTAIN BOSS | 11.9% | 8.41 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | JOY MASTER | 11.0% | 9.06 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | VITAL SPRING | 7.8% | 12.78 | 1 |
| 7 | 2 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE | 7.2% | 13.85 | 7 |
| 8 | 1 | FLYING NOBLE | 5.6% | 17.83 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | FRIENDS OF NANJING | 4.5% | 22.01 | 8 |
| 10 | 4 | HARBOUR CENTURY | 3.2% | 31.47 | 5 |
| 11 | 13 | CHATER THUNDER | 2.2% | 44.47 | 12 |
| 12 | 11 | FIRE AND GOLD | 2.1% | 48.35 | 13 |
| 13 | 14 | WHAMPOA STAR | 1.9% | 51.42 | 14 |
| 14 | 12 | KING MORTAR | 1.0% | 101.57 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 56.5
PLACE
1 33.5
3 21
8 19
QUINELLA
3,8 186
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 115.5
1,8 120
3,8 70
TIERCE
3,8,1 2,588
TRIO
1,3,8 619
FIRST 4
1,3,5,8 1,201
QUARTET
3,8,1,5 18,203
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,6/1,3,8 8,058
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 21.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/3 188.5
1/8 45