沙田 · 2019-09-15
第 7場
2019-09-15沙田第7場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由G van Niekerk策騎、P F Yiu訓練的SIMPLE ELEGANT勝出，贏出1-1/4。SPRINT FORWARD獲得亞軍；DIONYSUS COLLIN獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。2.6倍大熱門VICTORY POWER跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SIMPLE ELEGANT 一路領先 V 1.21.15 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 10 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | SPRINT FORWARD 後段發力 B-/H-/XB/CP1/TT1 Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 5 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 14 | DIONYSUS COLLIN 後段發力 H/XB M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 1 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | HURRICANE HUNTER 後段發力 J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 2 | 3.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | VICTORY POWER XB1/B2/TT- C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 3 | 2.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 13 | TELECOM ROCKET K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 13 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | CARE FREE PRINCE B K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 6 | 58.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 4 | 31.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | KA YING BRILLIANCE 後段發力 H/V/XB M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 11 | 41.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | WINNING CONTROLLER B H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 8 | 61.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | KING'S RACE TT C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 7 | 10.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | VIVA COUNCIL H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 12 | 29.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 13 | 7 | WINNING TOGETHER B- R Bayliss · C W Chang | R Bayliss | C W Chang | 9 | 136.0 | 16-1/4 |
| — | 1 | DIAMOND RHYME K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | VICTORY POWER | 20.2% | 4.96 | 5 |
| 2 | 12 | HURRICANE HUNTER | 13.5% | 7.42 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | KING'S RACE | 11.0% | 9.05 | 11 |
| 4 | 5 | SIMPLE ELEGANT | 8.5% | 11.74 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | SPRINT FORWARD | 7.7% | 12.93 | 2 |
| 6 | 14 | DIONYSUS COLLIN | 7.4% | 13.51 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | VIVA COUNCIL | 7.3% | 13.64 | 12 |
| 8 | 13 | TELECOM ROCKET | 6.7% | 14.96 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 | CARE FREE PRINCE | 5.7% | 17.68 | 7 |
| 10 | 9 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS | 4.1% | 24.27 | 8 |
| 11 | 8 | KA YING BRILLIANCE | 3.0% | 33.22 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | WINNING CONTROLLER | 2.9% | 34.33 | 10 |
| 13 | 7 | WINNING TOGETHER | 1.9% | 51.72 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 110
PLACE
5 33
11 32.5
14 32
QUINELLA
5,11 752
QUINELLA PLACE
5,11 209
5,14 162.5
11,14 213.5
TIERCE
5,11,14 16,645
TRIO
5,11,14 2,375
FIRST 4
5,11,12,14 1,848
QUARTET
5,11,14,12 57,206
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,8/5,11,14 79,564
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 36
6TH DOUBLE
6/5 414.5
6/11 57.5