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Sha Tin · 2019-09-15

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-15 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SIMPLE ELEGANT, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with SPRINT FORWARD second and DIONYSUS COLLIN third. The winner led throughout. The 2.6 favourite VICTORY POWER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SIMPLE ELEGANT Wire to wire V 1.21.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · P F Yiu 10 11.0 1-1/4
2 11 SPRINT FORWARD Closed strongly B-/H-/XB/CP1/TT1 Z Purton · J Moore 5 11.0 1-1/4
3 14 DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly H/XB M Chadwick · K W Lui 1 13.0 2-3/4
4 12 HURRICANE HUNTER Closed strongly J Moreira · C H Yip 2 3.4 2-3/4
5 6 VICTORY POWER XB1/B2/TT- C Schofield · D J Whyte 3 2.6 2-3/4
5 13 TELECOM ROCKET K Teetan · Y S Tsui 13 17.0 2-3/4
7 3 CARE FREE PRINCE B K H Chan · K L Man 6 58.0 3
8 9 MURRAY'S PARTNERS B Shinn · C H Yip 4 31.0 3-1/2
9 8 KA YING BRILLIANCE Closed strongly H/V/XB M L Yeung · T P Yung 11 41.0 6-3/4
10 10 WINNING CONTROLLER B H N Wong · C H Yip 8 61.0 8-3/4
11 4 KING'S RACE TT C Y Ho · K H Ting 7 10.0 13-1/2
12 2 VIVA COUNCIL H H T Mo · L Ho 12 29.0 13-1/2
13 7 WINNING TOGETHER B- R Bayliss · C W Chang 9 136.0 16-1/4
1 DIAMOND RHYME K C Leung · W Y So

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SIMPLE ELEGANT2. SPRINT FORWARD+1.25L3. DIONYSUS COLLIN+2.75L4. HURRICANE HUNTER+2.75L5. VICTORY POWER+2.75L5. TELECOM ROCKET+2.75L7. CARE FREE PRINCE+3L8. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+3.5L9. KA YING BRILLIANCE+6.75L10. WINNING CONTROLLER+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VICTORY POWER (20.2%) finished 5th — the winner SIMPLE ELEGANT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 VICTORY POWER 20.2% 4.96 5
2 12 HURRICANE HUNTER 13.5% 7.42 4
3 4 KING'S RACE 11.0% 9.05 11
4 5 SIMPLE ELEGANT 8.5% 11.74 1
5 11 SPRINT FORWARD 7.7% 12.93 2
6 14 DIONYSUS COLLIN 7.4% 13.51 3
7 2 VIVA COUNCIL 7.3% 13.64 12
8 13 TELECOM ROCKET 6.7% 14.96 5
9 3 CARE FREE PRINCE 5.7% 17.68 7
10 9 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 4.1% 24.27 8
11 8 KA YING BRILLIANCE 3.0% 33.22 9
12 10 WINNING CONTROLLER 2.9% 34.33 10
13 7 WINNING TOGETHER 1.9% 51.72 13
VICTORY POWERHURRICANE HUNTERKING'S RACESIMPLE ELEGANT — wonSPRINT FORWARDDIONYSUS COLLINVIVA COUNCILTELECOM ROCKETCARE FREE PRINCEMURRAY'S PARTNERSKA YING BRILLIANCEWINNING CONTROLLERWINNING TOGETHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 110

PLACE

5 33

11 32.5

14 32

QUINELLA

5,11 752

QUINELLA PLACE

5,11 209

5,14 162.5

11,14 213.5

TIERCE

5,11,14 16,645

TRIO

5,11,14 2,375

FIRST 4

5,11,12,14 1,848

QUARTET

5,11,14,12 57,206

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,8/5,11,14 79,564

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 36

6TH DOUBLE

6/5 414.5

6/11 57.5