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Sha Tin · 2019-09-15

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MONKEY JEWELLERY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by SH, with FRESH POWER second and LUCKY GUY third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MONKEY JEWELLERY 1.09.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 6 2.7 SH
2 8 FRESH POWER TT G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 3 9.0 SH
3 5 LUCKY GUY TT B Shinn · C H Yip 7 6.9 1
4 7 COLORADO HIGH C Schofield · R Gibson 9 23.0 1
5 4 MAJESTIC CONQUEROR TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung 2 15.0 1-3/4
6 9 FOODIE PRINCESS TT1 T H So · W Y So 4 165.0 2-3/4
7 12 GLITTERING ARMOUR XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 7.3 2-3/4
8 2 BRIGHT KID B/XB A Sanna · D J Whyte 10 5.5 3
9 11 SHINEALOT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 1 20.0 3
10 1 BINGO B/TT K H Chan · J Moore 11 10.0 3
11 3 CHEERFUL LEADER H W Lai · P F Yiu 8 200.0 4-1/2
12 10 SPEEDY MISSILE H1 U Rispoli · K H Ting 12 72.0 4-3/4
0 BREEZE OF SPRING Z Purton · L Ho

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MONKEY JEWELLERY2. FRESH POWER+0.1L3. LUCKY GUY+1L4. COLORADO HIGH+1L5. MAJESTIC CONQUEROR+1.75L6. FOODIE PRINCESS+2.75L7. GLITTERING ARMOUR+2.75L8. BRIGHT KID+3L9. SHINEALOT+3L10. BINGO+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MONKEY JEWELLERY (27.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MONKEY JEWELLERY 27.5% 3.63 1
2 5 LUCKY GUY 12.6% 7.95 3
3 12 GLITTERING ARMOUR 11.5% 8.66 7
4 8 FRESH POWER 10.1% 9.95 2
5 2 BRIGHT KID 7.8% 12.90 8
6 10 SPEEDY MISSILE 7.0% 14.35 12
7 7 COLORADO HIGH 5.8% 17.23 4
8 1 BINGO 5.7% 17.63 10
9 4 MAJESTIC CONQUEROR 4.6% 21.86 5
10 11 SHINEALOT 3.8% 26.45 9
11 3 CHEERFUL LEADER 3.0% 33.10 11
12 9 FOODIE PRINCESS 0.7% 137.32 6
MONKEY JEWELLERY — wonLUCKY GUYGLITTERING ARMOURFRESH POWERBRIGHT KIDSPEEDY MISSILECOLORADO HIGHBINGOMAJESTIC CONQUERORSHINEALOTCHEERFUL LEADERFOODIE PRINCESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 27.5

PLACE

5 21

6 16

8 27.5

QUINELLA

6,8 182.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 37.5

5,8 95.5

6,8 65

TIERCE

6,8,5 1,124

TRIO

5,6,8 255

FIRST 4

5,6,7,8 991

QUARTET

6,8,5,7 13,923

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 18.5

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

3/6 339.5

3/8 176.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,8/3,6,8/5,6,8 189,991

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,8/3,6,8/Any Combination 1,364