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Sha Tin · 2019-09-15

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-15 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BUDDIES, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by 1-1/4, with BEAR SLAM second and HAPPY SEBRING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.38.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BUDDIES Closed strongly H/TT 1.38.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore 2 1.6 1-1/4
2 5 BEAR SLAM Closed strongly N Callan · D E Ferraris 11 15.0 1-1/4
3 4 HAPPY SEBRING Closed strongly B-/PC1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 10 7.2 1-3/4
4 10 RULETHEROOST Closed strongly CP C Schofield · F C Lor 4 28.0 3-1/4
5 3 VOLPINO Closed strongly H/XB/TT J Moreira · T P Yung 3 7.9 4
5 9 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly SR M L Yeung · C W Chang 5 8.4 4
7 8 TANG FLEMING Led early B/TT K H Chan · C W Chang 9 24.0 5
8 7 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 7 89.0 5-1/2
9 2 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT P2/TT T H So · C H Yip 1 71.0 7-1/4
10 12 RIGHT HONOURABLE H/P/TT K C Leung · R Gibson 8 74.0 9-1/2
11 6 RULE THEE U Rispoli · P O'Sullivan 6 43.0 11-3/4
11 CLEAR CHOICE G van Niekerk · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BUDDIES2. BEAR SLAM+1.25L3. HAPPY SEBRING+1.75L4. RULETHEROOST+3.25L5. VOLPINO+4L5. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+4L7. TANG FLEMING+5L8. OWNERS' STAR+5.5L9. CHUNG WAH SPIRIT+7.25L10. RIGHT HONOURABLE+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BUDDIES (35.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BUDDIES 35.4% 2.82 1
2 3 VOLPINO 15.6% 6.43 5
3 4 HAPPY SEBRING 13.1% 7.63 3
4 10 RULETHEROOST 7.9% 12.61 4
5 9 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 7.2% 13.96 5
6 8 TANG FLEMING 5.8% 17.38 7
7 5 BEAR SLAM 4.9% 20.45 2
8 6 RULE THEE 3.7% 27.24 11
9 7 OWNERS' STAR 3.7% 27.28 8
10 12 RIGHT HONOURABLE 1.4% 69.06 10
11 2 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT 1.4% 72.32 9
BUDDIES — wonVOLPINOHAPPY SEBRINGRULETHEROOSTRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINETANG FLEMINGBEAR SLAMRULE THEEOWNERS' STARRIGHT HONOURABLECHUNG WAH SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16

PLACE

1 10.1

4 19

5 33

QUINELLA

1,5 94

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 21.5

1,5 42

4,5 114

TIERCE

1,5,4 592

TRIO

1,4,5 164

FIRST 4

1,4,5,10 531

QUARTET

1,5,4,10 6,128

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 13.5

A3

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

5/1,11 290.5

5/5 263