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Sha Tin · 2019-09-15

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SOLOMON'S BAY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with CALIFORNIA GUNGHO second and NEW ASIA SUNRISE third. The 1.8 favourite CALIFORNIA GUNGHO finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SOLOMON'S BAY CP/XB 1.08.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 7 8.0 N
2 8 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 5 1.8 N
3 6 NEW ASIA SUNRISE C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 6 4.7 1-1/2
4 7 GRATWICK TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 8 34.0 2-1/4
5 1 SUPER WISE H/P/TT K H Chan · K L Man 1 5.6 2-1/2
6 4 THRILLED SR M L Yeung · T P Yung 3 15.0 3-1/4
7 9 DECISIVE ACTION T H So · C H Yip 4 81.0 3-1/4
8 5 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V U Rispoli · L Ho 10 44.0 3-1/2
9 10 WINSTON'S LAD H H W Lai · K W Lui 9 44.0 4-1/4
10 2 GEORGIAN MANOR H N Wong · K H Ting 2 108.0 16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOLOMON'S BAY2. CALIFORNIA GUNGHO+0.05L3. NEW ASIA SUNRISE+1.5L4. GRATWICK+2.25L5. SUPER WISE+2.5L6. THRILLED+3.25L7. DECISIVE ACTION+3.25L8. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE+3.5L9. WINSTON'S LAD+4.25L10. GEORGIAN MANOR+16.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA GUNGHO (35.4%) finished 2nd — the winner SOLOMON'S BAY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO 35.4% 2.82 2
2 3 SOLOMON'S BAY 20.3% 4.93 1
3 1 SUPER WISE 13.8% 7.26 5
4 6 NEW ASIA SUNRISE 7.9% 12.58 3
5 5 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE 6.0% 16.59 8
6 4 THRILLED 5.2% 19.18 6
7 7 GRATWICK 4.2% 24.03 4
8 2 GEORGIAN MANOR 2.8% 35.32 10
9 9 DECISIVE ACTION 2.2% 45.42 7
10 10 WINSTON'S LAD 2.2% 46.40 9
CALIFORNIA GUNGHOSOLOMON'S BAY — wonSUPER WISENEW ASIA SUNRISESUMSTREETSUMWHERETHRILLEDGRATWICKGEORGIAN MANORDECISIVE ACTIONWINSTON'S LAD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 80

PLACE

3 20

6 14.5

8 11.5

QUINELLA

3,8 65.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 44.5

3,8 29.5

6,8 20

TIERCE

3,8,6 570

TRIO

3,6,8 66

FIRST 4

3,6,7,8 388

QUARTET

3,8,6,7 9,267

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 25

A3

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

3/3 432

3/8 29