Sha Tin · 2019-09-15
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-15 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WATER DIVINER, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with FAT TURTLE second and CALIFORNIA WHIP third. The 3.1 favourite FAT TURTLE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | WATER DIVINER B/H/TT 1.08.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 8 | 30.0 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | FAT TURTLE B G van Niekerk · F C Lor | G van Niekerk | F C Lor | 4 | 3.1 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 2 | 9.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | HANDSOME BO BO CP1 H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 1 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | LUCKY HERO B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 9 | 24.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | PERFECT GLORY H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 10 | 228.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | RACING FIGHTER B Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 6.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT1 T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 12 | 181.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | RAGING STORM PC J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 6.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | HELLO BEAUTY B/TT C Schofield · J Moore | C Schofield | J Moore | 3 | 4.4 | 5 |
| 11 | 11 | PRANCE DRAGON B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 5 | 21.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 2 | STYLING CITY B B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 7 | 13.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | HELLO BEAUTY | 20.5% | 4.87 | 10 |
| 2 | 7 | FAT TURTLE | 19.4% | 5.14 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | RAGING STORM | 17.2% | 5.81 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | RACING FIGHTER | 10.1% | 9.94 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | LUCKY HERO | 7.0% | 14.25 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | CALIFORNIA WHIP | 5.7% | 17.51 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | STYLING CITY | 5.0% | 19.89 | 12 |
| 8 | 11 | PRANCE DRAGON | 4.4% | 22.59 | 11 |
| 9 | 5 | WATER DIVINER | 3.9% | 25.88 | 1 |
| 10 | 10 | HANDSOME BO BO | 2.5% | 39.82 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | TEAM SPIRIT | 2.4% | 42.04 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | PERFECT GLORY | 1.8% | 54.95 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 308
PLACE
1 28.5
5 83.5
7 14
QUINELLA
5,7 425.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 308
1,7 57
5,7 153.5
TIERCE
5,7,1 9,503
TRIO
1,5,7 1,287
FIRST 4
1,5,7,10 3,202
QUARTET
5,7,1,10 93,685
3 PICK 1
A3 37
A2 —
A1 —
All pools (1 more)
8TH DOUBLE
1,11/5 509
1,11/7 12